Gold breaches $1,800, oil oscillates towards the highs
ETF inflows surge into the precious metal, demand from traditional big markets drops.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold took much of the attention yesterday, with a breach of the closely-watched psychological $1,800 level that has further enticed speculators into the precious metal. Conformist breakout strategies outperformed this time around as volatility spiked with quick work of yesterday's 1st Resistance level before prices retraced back towards the key pivot point. The increased demand has been on the ETF front with record inflows the bulk of which coming from North American funds, but keep in mind that demand from traditional big markets like India and China are declining, and may remain the case especially on a household level in countries that have applied less stimulus measures, and even more so once what little stimulus on offer comes to a potential end.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail buy bias hasn't dropped on yesterday's surge, attracting more longs and taking the bias back into heavy long territory at 64% as of this morning.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
While oil prices finished higher to keep its some of its key technicals flashing green, it offered little momentum and in turn failed to reach either of yesterday's key pivot points. In oil data, EIA's (Energy Information Administration) US crude oil inventories estimate was well above that of API's (American Petroleum Institute) reading the night before, registering a 5.7m increase but doing little to hurt the energy commodity's price. Coronavirus cases have passed 12m and topping 3m in the US with a big daily spike not helping the general context of transportation and energy demand, as well as news from United Airlines on big layoffs a reminder of what lies in store for global air travel.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail bias has shifted from a previous slight majority long 52% to a now slight majority short 54%, and at risk should a move higher should a successful breach of its current resistance level commence.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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