Gold and silver oscillate again, oil rises slightly
Oil retail longs swift to take profit, bias close to shifting to majority short.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It was another day of rangebound movement for gold prices, which managed to gain somewhat thanks to a risk-off mood in equities. More talk of stimulus out of the US translated automatically into more central bank aid, and talk of negative rates would certainly help put a floor on gold prices given it’s a non-yielding asset. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell will be speaking later today and will likely address those concerns which could have implications on the US dollar, and hence USD related pairs and products like gold priced in the greenback. From a technical standpoint, while its overview is still bullish, it has stalled heavily at the highs and has failed on most days to offer breakout opportunities on a lack of follow through.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
The lack of movement has translated into a lack of change in sentiment, with retail traders still holding a long bias that’s hovering near extreme long levels.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
As with gold, it was another non-story for silver prices as it oscillated with very narrow ranges and failed to reach either of its key pivot points. That's not to take away from positive technical bias that has been building, but far more will be needed in consecutive action for a bullish case. The US dollar might be more volatile when the Fed's Powell speaks today, and any talk of yield could infuse more volatility in this precious metal's price.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Here too, retail bias is unchanged at an extreme long 89% on a lack of change in price.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices have begun to settle at these relative highs with its price closing above its 50-day moving average yesterday but failing to offer any pivot point action on a lack of follow through. In oil data, API's (American Petroleum Institute) reading came in at a sizeable 7.6m surplus, lower than the week before but still significant. EIA's (Energy Information Agency) figure is up next today expected to show a smaller 4.1m increase after last week's 4.6m surplus. Governments (and regions) are still torn between lockdown easing or reversing to impose further restrictions as coronavirus cases rise, but in the absence of a full lockdown globally, energy demand could slowly pick up combined with further output cuts out of OPEC.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail longs are closing out more swiftly, with the bias not that far off from shifting to majority short.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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