Gold and silver finish the week higher, oil drops
CoT gold and silver majority buy bias drops, unchanged in oil.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Conformist breakout strategies were tested in the short-term with a lack of movement late last week for the precious metal's price, but clearly aided Weekly conformist buy breakout strategies with a breach of its previous 1st Resistance level. The US dollar managed to recover some lost ground in the FX market, while a risk off mood in the financial market showed signs of a 'sell everything' moment that hurt the safe haven metal instead of helping it. Tempting as it may be to label the current technical overview as bullish with most of its main technical indicators continuing to flash green and its bull trend channel still holding, a spike in volatility can't be ruled out which would shift the focus from buy vs. sell to breakout vs. reversal.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Fresh retail longs were quick to close out on the move higher, taking the bias from an extreme long 80% at the start of last week to 70%. On the CoT (Commitment of Traders) front, it's still in extreme long territory but dropping a notch to 83% on a drop in longs by 8,224 lots and a rise in shorts by 2,197 lots.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Silver prices breached last week's Weekly 1st Resistance but didn't offer much beyond it, dropping late last week to aid contrarian sell strategies instead. While the technicals remain positive as its bull trend technical overview stalls at these levels, should gold prices come under serious pressure and contrarian strategies may outperform once again. After five weeks of price drops in the gold/silver ratio, the 95 level held with gold outperforming last week.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
On the sentiment front, retail bias remains in extreme long territory and little changed since the start of last week, and institutional traders are reducing their long bias. They were at a heavy long 70%, but an increase in shorts by 4,522 lots outdoing a 663 lot increase in longs has taken that bias down to 67%.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices were finally in for more volatile movement on Thursday, with conformist breakout strategies to the downside outperforming on a break in both daily and weekly pivot points. Oil markets are still at the mercy of fundamental factors, with ongoing coronavirus headlines combined with surplus storage failing to take the energy commodity's price higher. Baker Hughes data showed active US oil rigs suffering yet another consecutive drop to 199 from 206 prior, though expectations are for an eventual reversal given the (at least partial) recovery in oil prices. OPEC+'s JMMC will be meeting this Thursday, for otherwise it's the usual weekly oil data, any update on the coronavirus front and fears of a second wave, as well as significant economic data.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
CoT sentiment is unchanged at an extreme long 82% with similar increases in both long and short positioning, and retail bias while down a notch since the start of last week is still in heavy long levels anticipating further price gains.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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