Gold and silver drop, oil continues its ascent
Retail long bias in oil jumps into heavy long territory, gold and silver bias unchanged.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Safe haven was in for a retreat yesterday, and that meant that despite USD weakness on the FX front, gold prices registered a controlled decline with its price three times breaking below yesterday's 1st Support level to offer buy-on-reversal opportunities in the process (buy fading strategies were more opportune, but an increase in volatility would have been prone to getting stopped out more easily). We've got US data released tonight, but should equities continue to rally and that could continue to test the precious metal's stalling and weakened bull trend technical overview.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
It would also result in a test of retail bias which stands at an unchanged heavy long 75%, as well as CoT (Commitment of Traders) speculators holding an extreme long bias of 85% as per last Friday's report.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The 94 mid-term support level held in the gold/silver ratio, as gold outperformed compared to silver following consecutive losses, albeit not by much. Volatility here was bigger, twice breaking below yesterday's 1st Support and both times buy-on-reversal conformist strategies failing to offer and at risk of getting stopped out this morning. This was despite USD weakness, and silver which usually outperforms in risk-related cases failed to live up to expectations. Overall, a brief look at its daily (and weekly) chart as well as its key technical indicators that are flashing green and it's clear more will be needed to undo its current bull trend technical overview on the daily and weekly.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices continued to edge higher, and aiding conformist buy breakout strategies with a breach of yesterday's 1st Resistance level, even if follow through wasn't as sizeable. API's (American Petroleum Institute) showed a slight deficit of 0.5m, with EIA (Energy Information Administration) up next expected to show a 3m surplus. However, the real focus is on OPEC+ and expectations of an extension in output cuts that would have eased in July, taking Brent above the $40 mark and capturing the headlines.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail long bias continue to climb alongside the price increases in oil, jumping into heavy long territory at 65% as of this morning's reading.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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