Futures lower this morning for Dow and Nasdaq

Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

After initially hitting limit up yesterday prior to the open, the Dow's price failed to move past yesterday’s 1^st Resistance level, briefly crashing below its 1^st Support level instead, as the index's price oscillates in wide ranges at the lows. In terms of its components, as of the finish its underperformers included Boeing and where Travelers managed to outperform for a change. Defensive utilities sector was the outperformer, with energy worst hit due to falling oil prices. In US data, retail sales for February contracted, industrial production rose, and business inventories for January (and hence unaffected by the coronavirus) dropped slightly. Housing data will be released later today for the US, with both building permits and housing starts for February expected to increase at a slower pace than January, though attention will likely be on whether the government can push through a $1tn stimulus package for the economy.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Dow

In sentiment, retail bias shifted back to majority long at 64%, and since then has dropped slightly to 61% as of this morning.

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The Nasdaq's price was in for a move below yesterday's 1^st Support level as well as above its 1^st Resistance, offering some but not a significant amount, and where contrarian reversals here managed to outperform (for a change). Despite finishing yesterday slightly in the green, it too is in retreat this morning with futures pointing lower and as such undoing yesterday’s gains with ease. Amongst its components, Tesla was the underperformer down nearly 19%, with hospitality Marriott and Netflix also suffering heavily.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq

Here, retail bias was identical to that of the Dow yesterday morning at a heavy long 64% having shifted from majority short, and following yesterday's moves that bias has dropped to 56% as of this morning.

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with both Dow and Nasdaq, the DAX's price made a move below yesterday's 1^st Support level. But unlike the other two, it offered more on its first try before partially retracing back up, even if the German index finished in the red. VW earnings for 2019 didn’t disappoint, but with production set to be suspended expect 2020 to have heavy negative results. News out of the Eurozone hasn't been positive as of late with more factory closures, incoming travelers banned, and countries imposing further restrictions, and hence is expected to remain a negative factor in attempting to price where German equities will settle, even if German bond yields are rising back up (they're still in negative territory and hence not considered an alternative for those seeking returns neither on asset price nor yields).

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for DAX

DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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