EUR/USD: Euro an outperformer in the FX market
Last week’s gains test negative technical bias, retail sentiment shifts.
EUR/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Contrary to its technical overview, the euro was an outperformer last week, breaking through last week's Weekly 1st and 2nd Resistance levels as US rate cut likelihoods surged to price in two for this month's Fed meeting, and four by the end of the year. There was also a shift in its daily overview as its bear trend line got broken. A brief glance at its weekly chart and its price is still within its weekly bear trend channel, but that doesn’t mean contrarian breakout strategies can be ruled out. A string of manufacturing PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index) out of the Eurozone (and elsewhere) will be released today following China’s weekend contraction in both services and manufacturing.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for EUR/USD
In sentiment, retail bias shifted from a heavy long 74% at the start of last week to a slight short 53%, far less than that of CoT (Commitment of Traders) bias which rose to 63% on a reduction in euro longs by 12,999 lots and a rise in shorts by 9,515 lots.
EUR/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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