Dow, Nasdaq and DAX in the red this morning following Apple’s revenue warning
Coronavirus expected to translate into tested earnings for companies exposed to the Chinese market.
Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
With a bank holiday yesterday, the focus was more on the Asian session tested by worse than expected Japanese figures. And then Apple’s revenue warning on its March quarter due to the coronavirus hit the wires, sending stocks into the red this morning, with futures pointing lower. For the retail sector, today's a significant one as Walmart (a component of the Dow) will be announcing its earnings. From a technical standpoint, its weekly overview is a stalling bull trend, but as we zoom into the daily the focus has been more volatile on risk-related moves, and the absence of which such as late last week has seen more rangebound movement befitting contrarian strategies instead. In terms of US data, we've got manufacturing data this evening, as well as NAHB's housing index.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Dow
Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment
It has been a positive bull run for the Nasdaq as of late, and whether recent gains can continue in line with its current bull trend technical overview will matter in the context of not just current central bank liquidity injections that have seen risk appetite improve as money flows back into equities, but also how tech shares are getting hit in Asia following Apple’s revenue warning that is likely to cause revisions on the earnings front.
Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The slight price drop this morning has helped some fresh retail shorts, and the heavy short bias here has dropped slightly to 70%.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq
Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment
DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
With German data disappointing last Friday with preliminary GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures failing to impress, ZEW figures are up next expected to show a worsening figure. There’s no denying that the Chinese market’s affect from the coronavirus is now expected to seep into earnings estimates of companies that are exposed to the Chinese market. And given its Germany’s largest export market, that will make the German index ever more reliant on central bank easing to keep its price close to recent record highs.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for DAX
Retail bias is still in extreme short territories at 82% squeezed by the move up towards 13800, though any further price declines may result in swift profit-taking on retail shorts that have had a tendency to range-trade the index.
DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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