Dow, Nasdaq and DAX all finish higher
Retail majority short bias rises in all three.
Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Conformist breakout strategies outperformed but only slightly as the Dow finished higher, with nearly all its components in the green with the exception of Walmart and Disney (whose share price jumped in afterhours after it revealed its streaming service now has more than 50mn subscribers). US sector performance showed real estate outperforming, and where energy will likely be the most influenced due to OPEC++'s virtual meeting later today. There's also US data to contend with, including the closely watched unemployment claims with expectations of a larger 5mn figure following last week's 6.6mn shocker. In domestic politics, the additional $250bn of stimulus has yet to pass Congress as Democrats call for a similar amount for hospitals and local governments, while this November its Trump vs. Biden as Sanders withdraws.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Dow
Meanwhile, in sentiment, retail bias is back in heavy long territory, jumping to 73% as fresh shorts reinitiate.
Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Compared to the Dow, the Nasdaq didn't finish as high in percentage terms, though it failed to offer a move at or beyond its key pivot points ahead of more fundamental data today that could shift risk appetite. Amongst its components, hospitality Marriot, as well as American Airlines were the outperformers. While the short-term trend has been more bullish and US Federal Reserve (Fed) liquidity could easily push share prices higher opposite the fundamental realities, what it has translated into is not sell vs. buy on key pivot points but breakout vs. reversal, with reversals getting tested should volatility spike – a real possibility in both scenarios of increased uncertainty or a lack thereof.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq
Retail bias has risen on yesterday’s price increase to a majority short 61%, though is less than that of the Dow given the relative lack of performance failing to entice fresh shorts.
Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment
DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The German DAX was no exception in finishing higher for the session, though there were plenty of its components finishing in the red as of yesterday's close with Siemens and Deutsche Bank suffering the heaviest losses. In German data, there was little on offer yesterday, and with the exception of trade data likely to show a big surplus today and the ECB’s (European Central Bank) minutes, there won't be anything to go on for the remainder of the week out of Europe's manufacturing powerhouse. Overall risk-related moves and coronavirus figures could continue to set the tone, as well as noting bond yields that have risen back up as of late but in the case of the German 10-year is still in negative territory.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for DAX
In sentiment, retail bias is little changed inching further into majority short territory, identical to the Nasdaq at a short 61%.
DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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