CoT long positions drop in gold, silver and oil

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The oscillations last week in gold prices has failed to shift its technical overview of what is a stalling bull trend on both the Weekly and Daily, and there was a lack of weekly pivot point action as its price failed to reach either of last week's levels. On the Daily it did breach past Thursday's 1^st Resistance level to aid conformist breakouts, but was met with partial retracement on Friday. Long-term US yields finished the week up, and any significant gains combined with any potential deflationary pressures, and the non-yielding precious metal's lack of a price increase will continue to test majority long traders.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, retail bias is little changed since the start of last week holding a heavy long bias of 74%, while larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report continue to hold an extreme long bias, even if gold long positions dropped 11,811 lots and shorts rose by 914 lots.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

On the Weekly, silver prices retraced off of last week's Weekly 1^st Resistance level to aid conformist reversal strategies. And nearly every day of the week was a non-story when it comes to silver price movement with the exception of Thursday, its price finally breaking through that day's key pivot point to temporarily aid contrarian breakout strategies. More positive technical bias is building in the short-term, and hence if any upside breakout occurs and a conformist sell should be initiated only after a significant reversal. The gold/silver ratio registered a drop last week, and should that become a theme and the contrasting technical overviews between gold and silver may finally start to converge.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

In sentiment, retail bias is still in extreme long territory, but CoT speculators have reduced their long bias to 68% on a drop in longs by 968 lots and a simultaneous increase in shorts by 1,622 lots.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Oil prices registered a big price increase last week, its price breaching both of its Weekly resistance pivot points to aid volatile conformist breakout strategies. On the Daily however, it was tested towards the end of the week on a lack of follow through, aiding daily contrarian reversal strategies on Thursday instead. As lockdown restrictions ease in most countries, expectations are for energy demand to pick up, but not without casualties to the energy sector, as the latest oil data released on Friday out of Baker Hughes showed the US active oil rig count drop for an eighth consecutive week, down to 292 from 325 the week before (and 683 eight weeks prior).

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Lastly, in sentiment, retail traders continue to hold a majority long bias, but nowhere near that of larger speculators even after an increase in shorts by 43,910 lots and a drop in longs by 14,866 lots, the bias is still in extreme long territory at 79%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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