CoT bias in gold, silver and oil rises for the week

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Range-bound movement last week befitting its current weekly and daily technical overviews, even with its price still above all its main long-term moving averages and its ADX (Average Directional Index) showing an ongoing propensity to trend. Economic data has been mostly as expected, though the fact that both the dollar outperformed and indices at record highs failing to dent this precious metal is a relatively positive sign all things considered. On the geopolitical front, North Korea's December 31 deadline and meetings this week in that regard could give the precious metal a leg to stand on if geopolitical tensions worsen.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, the lack of change in price has translated into a lack of change in bias amongst retail traders, with the bias still heavy long and awaiting upside movement. As for the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report, the bias amongst larger speculative traders has risen a notch to an extreme long 86% on an increase in gold long positions by 15,324 lots and a lack of change in shorts.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Silver's price managed to claw back some lost territory on Friday, though overall has been relatively rangebound, with a positive weekly DMI cross occurring last week. Its price has stayed within last week’s weekly levels, but on the daily breaching its 1st Resistance level slightly and offering little beyond that. As with gold, most of its main technical indicators are neutral but with a trending ADX.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver

In sentiment, retail bias is little changed and remains in extreme long territories dropping only a percent to 92%, and on the CoT front heavy long bias is up 2% to 68% on an increase in silver longs by 2,598 lots and a simultaneous reduction in silver shorts by 2,441 lots.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Oil prices briefly crossed above the 100-week moving average but failed to finish above it, as the energy commodity finished the week higher but in consolidatory fashion and befitting its current technical overview that’s consolidatory but showing a touch of positive technical bias, and where the daily overview is a stalling bull trend after repeated attempts to make higher highs. In oil data, Baker Hughes US oil rig count dropped to 664 from 667 prior, as overall the rig count remains tested.

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IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

As for sentiment, while retail bias is little changed at a heavy short 67% compared to the start of last week where it was 65%, it did move higher intraweek to 72% before dropping as fresh retail shorts took profit on Friday’s drop. CoT bias on the other hand is inching further into extreme long territory and stands at 89% on an increase in long positions by 34,897 lots and a simultaneous reduction in shorts by 5,941 lots.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

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