Weekly Market Report: Gold, Silver, Oil – US Crude
Gold retraces as US dollar strength tests its bull trend technical overview.
GOLD: Unable to finish the week in the green thanks to Friday’s greenback strength
Gold had a chance to finish in the green after the surge earlier in the week, but the greenback’s strength at the end of the week ruined those chances and kept the precious metal’s price at bay. As it stands rate cut likelihoods have dropped hurting non-yielding assets in the process, but looking at the rest of the world shows that negative-yielding bonds continue to gain more market share, and combined with rising geopolitical tensions could give the precious metal a leg to stand on, especially if non-USD denominated. As for sentiment, the bias continues to rise as long traders add to their positions, with the bias up 4% on last week. Fundamental forces are set to dictate this pair’s movement this week, with plenty of Fed related items on the economic calendar.
SILVER: Range-bound movement with retail bias still in extreme long territory
All the pair’s main weekly technical indicators are neutral, though its price only just avoided closing below its 50-week moving average, which would have placed it below all its long-term moving averages. Both daily and weekly technical indicators are mostly neutral, and hence masking the pair’s future movement with silver failing to match gold’s performance when it rises, and hugging the lows when it drops on USD strength. In terms of retail bias, it has inched higher to an extreme long 96%, the highest bias held by traders in any of the products in this report.
OIL – US CRUDE: Growth worries keep demand side factors at bay, while supply side worries persist
As it stands, the technical overview remains consolidatory, whereby most of its technical indicators are neutral and combined with a non-trending ADX. Growth worries globally have a tendency to keep demand side factors at bay, but with geopolitical tensions continuing to rise, supply side worries persist. The tussle between the two continues, and this week is likely to be more about where the greenback will settle after Fed speak and US data. In terms of bias, retail sentiment remains majority long at 60%.
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