Big day for oil as OPEC+ meets

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Gold prices were in for very little movement despite the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes which showed its members intending to keep rates lower for the foreseeable future, and which ideally should aid the non-yielding precious metal in a time of uncertainty, lack of economic (and financial) returns, and fiat easing. The lack of volatility here has done little to aid pivot point plays with little momentum and less follow through, and in turn neither contrarian nor conformist strategies were in play. In terms of US data, the next key items on the economic calendar in terms of risk (as well as potentially liquidity) is employment data this evening, and CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures tomorrow.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, retail bias has moved slightly higher and into extreme long territory, now at 77%.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with gold, silver prices barely budged yesterday, with little difference in terms of performance between the two and in turn doing little to move the gold/silver ratio. Short-term moves have been to the upside following the plummet in mid-March, but even the greenback’s performance was in the middle when compared to the other FX majors. Once volatility does spike, pivot point trades will come back into play.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

For both retail and institutional traders the hope is for the volatility to be to the upside given their heavy to extreme long bias, the former’s long bias rising a notch to 92%.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It's a big fundamental day for oil prices, shares of oil companies, financial institutions that have lent out to oil companies, and anything else oil related. That is because 'OPEC+ and Friends' are due for a virtual meeting today afternoon, and where the decision to reduce output by 10-15m barrels per day (bpd) – or the lack of a decision entirely – will shake the energy commodity's price. Volatility here could be very high on any rumors or facts presented during or after the call, and will likely mean tomorrow's G20 meeting of energy ministers will carry far less relevance. In oil data, EIA posted a massive 15.2m surplus, larger than expectations and API’s prior.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Going into today's monumental event retail traders are holding an extreme long bias of 78%, similar to that of larger speculative traders according to last Friday's CoT (Commitment of Traders).

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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