AUD/USD: RBA keeps interest rates unchanged
Central bank cites ‘highly uncertain’ outlook, will continue ‘to do what it can’.
AUD/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Losses suffered yesterday in the Australian dollar have mostly been undone by this morning, with the focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy announcement, which as expected kept interest rates unchanged, in its statement saying that although the 'worst of this contraction has now passed, the outlook remains highly uncertain' and that it remains 'committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses'. Elsewhere Australia’s trade surplus grew but by a smaller than expected amount with its previous revised lower, while retail sales beat estimates. AIG's construction data and Chinese services data out of Caixin will be released tomorrow.
From a technical standpoint, its bull trend technical overview has been stalling heavily at these levels, not just on consecutive declines but also a lack of follow through on days where it manages to best what has been a USD in relative retreat in the FX market. That has meant conformist overview strategies have been tested on a lack of momentum beyond its 1st Resistance level, and enticing contrarian strategies as well as range-traders hoping AUD/USD’s price will remain relatively rangebound within the 0.7050-0.7200 levels.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for AUD/USD
In sentiment, there’s been no change in what has been majority short bias for retail traders, with longs enticed on closing out on the move up towards 0.72 and shorts initiated at lower price levels awaiting further retracement. CoT bias according to the latest report out of the CFTC shows a shift back to majority short bias after a brief stint in the middle on an increase in AUD shorts by 5,431 lots outdoing a 624 lot increase in AUD longs.
AUD/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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