ASX 200 outlook, CommSec: ‘returns to be largely flat over 2020’
We examine some key levels to watch for in the Australian Dollar as well as CommSec’s outlook for Australian equities.
AUD/USD remains robust, iron ore prices elevated
As Australia’s corporate earnings season draws to a close – the ASX 200 benchmark has traded mostly flat – rising just 2.3% in the last month.
By comparison, the Australian dollar has rallied strongly – last trading at $0.735, up from approximately $0.715 at the start of August.
This comes as iron ore prices remain elevated – arguably Australia’s most important export – with CME's front month iron ore futures contract last trading above US$120 per tonne.
Elsewhere, with the Reserve Bank of Australia set to meet tomorrow, 1 September, according to IG’s market analyst Kyle Rodda, we could potentially see volatility in the Australian dollar, with it being noted that:
‘The AUD/USD has traded less according to Australian economic fundamentals recently, and more according to sentiment in global financial markets, and the fortunes of the US Dollar.
Mr Rodda said that regardless of what the RBA does at tomorrow’s meeting, the Australian dollar is likely continue to trade based on the above variables. Nonetheless, it was argued that:
‘If the RBA strikes a very dovish tone, a pullback in the AUD/USD to support/resistance to around 0.7280 will be watched. If not, the pair will be given room to continue its recent rally, with the next key level around 0.7390.’
How to trade markets – long or short
You can use CFDs to trade both rising and falling markets, including currencies, equities and indices, through IG’s world-class trading platform now.
For example, to buy (long) or sell (short) the Australian dollar using CFDs, follow these easy steps:
- Create an IG Trading Account or log in to your existing account
- Enter ‘AUD/USD' in the search bar and select it
- Choose your position size
- Click on ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ in the deal ticket
- Confirm the trade
ASX 200 earnings season and beyond: key stocks in focus
Though Australian equities have traded sharply off their March lows, they remain significantly off the 7,000 point level achieved in late February, with uncertainty around the economic outlook a key overhang for the markets.
Looking at some of the headline results August’s earnings season, we see that:
- CBA reported robust growth across its lending portfolio and declared a 98 cent per share final dividend
- Telstra reported solid full-year results, though guided for lower top and bottom-line figures in FY21
- AMP announced a special dividend of 10 cents per share
- Off the back of elevated iron ore prices, FMG revealed record profits and a $1.00 final dividend
- Qantas saw its profits collapse 91%
- CSL saw its share price surge after releasing its FY20 results, though the stock pulled back soon after
- Afterpay, Zip and Sezzle all posted stratospheric growth figures, but profitability remains elusive
Looking forward, analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s CommSec division argued that the ASX 200 benchmark is unlikely to surpass the 7,000 level again in CY20, saying:
‘We expect sharemarket returns to be largely flat over 2020, supported by easy monetary and fiscal conditions. While shares remain ‘expensive’ valuation-wise relative to history, clearly these are not normal times.’
CommSec’s analysts concluded that:
‘Corporate earnings will remain challenged in the near-term and dividend payouts are likely to be lower.’
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Act on share opportunities today
Go long or short on thousands of international stocks with CFDs.
- Get full exposure for a comparatively small deposit
- Trade on spreads from just 0.1%
- Get greater order book visibility with direct market access
See opportunity on a stock?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re on to something.
- Log in to your demo
- Try a risk-free trade
- See whether your hunch pays off
See opportunity on a stock?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Trade a huge range of popular stocks
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See opportunity on a stock?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take advantage while conditions prevail.
Live prices on most popular markets