Oil surges back up, retail bias shifts again as longs take profit
Gold and silver bias remains extreme long as range-bound movement tests trend traders, while oil traders continue to range-trade the bull trend channel.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Central bank decisions affect gold prices given a lower interest rates ensures the non-yielding asset's attractiveness in the face of fiat currencies. And while we didn't get a central bank decision yesterday, there was a lack of any hints in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes in terms of future policy. The ECB (European Central Bank) minutes released today as well as its president's speech tomorrow should be viewed in the context of what the Eurozone's central bank may due and how it'll affect the precious metal, though given its priced in dollars here ideally will have a more limiting affect compared to US central bank decision-making. The consolidatory moves thus far have been in line with its current technical overview.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold
As for sentiment, retail bias is back up near extreme long levels, not that far off 85% extreme long bias held by institutional traders.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The consolidatory moves here in silver were similar to that of gold's price, and in line with its current consolidatory technical overview that’s offering little in terms of hints as nearly all its main technical indicators remain neutral, and a touch of negative technical bias should its price be able to recover and remain above its short-term support level.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Given API's (American Petroleum Institute) surplus that sent oil's prices lower on Tuesday, attention was on yesterday's EIA (Energy Information Administration) estimate whereby expectations were for a 1.4M surplus. The results were only slightly below that, yet the reaction in terms of oil prices ensured that its price has managed to stay with its relatively broken bull trend channel on the daily. In terms of the affect on oil for the remaining items this week, tomorrow's preliminary manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) figures will be important in determining appetite for oil from a sector that thus far has been hit by mostly contractions globally.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
As for retail sentiment, longs took profit and shorts initiated, shifting the bias from a previous heavy long 72% to a majority short 52% as of today morning.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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