Gold and silver recover off the lows while oil dips

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The pair’s weekly short-term support level got broken last week but managed to eventually hold, recovering later in the week even as US equities made fresh record highs while the US dollar underperformed. With price moves limiting, neither of last week’s weekly inner pivot points were reached, as the daily outlook shows more negative technical bias as opposed to the weekly’s conflicting outlook where its price is below all its main short-term moving averages but above all its main long-term ones. Trade talk is the item to look out for this week should it shift appetite for risk, while given some of the moves were USD driven means the greenback should also be noted within that context.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, longs continue to get tested, and where those initiated at lower price levels were given a chance to book small profits. Retail bias is down 2% since last week but still extreme long at 80%, while institutional bias has risen a notch to 85% on a reduction in longs by 21,402 lots outdoing a reduction in shorts by 8,640 lots.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Last week was anything but volatile, with the moves very limiting both intraday and intraweek, but where a negative DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross occurred. The technical overview on both daily and weekly remains consolidatory, and where price is above all its main long-term weekly moving averages but below all its main short-term ones.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver

Retail sentiment is little changed on last week’s extreme long 91% bias, while CoT (Commitment of Traders) long bias continues to drop edging towards the middle due to a reduction in silver long positions by 7,847 lots and a simultaneous increase in silver short positions by 2,786 lots.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Another week, another consolidatory session for oil prices, but where it continues to show more positive bias, especially on the daily chart with its price at the upper end of its bull trend channel and showing early signs of an initializing bull trend. Last week’s EIA (Energy Information Administration) reading was a slight 2.2M surplus, but Baker Hughes US oil rig count on Friday showed another drop to 674 from 684 the week before.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

In sentiment, the increase in price is enticing longs into taking profit and range-trading shorts to initiate at the pair’s short-term resistance (and 200-day moving average) levels, and taking the bias to a majority short 56% as a result. As for CoT bias, it has risen back into heavier extreme long levels at 82% on a reduction in longs by 25,944 lots outdone by a larger reduction in shorts by 44,401 lots.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment