2017 look ahead: political risks

Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric towards China, the growth of discontent in Europe ahead of key elections in some of the biggest economies and Brexit have been highlighted as political risks in 2017, but Klisman Murati from Global Risk Insights points out some of the most damaging issues not being mentioned. These include the growth of spending in both military defense and cyber security by some of the biggest economies in the world, as well as the potential impact of Twitter. Klisman points out Donald Trump has the power to halt the entire global market with just 140 characters if he chooses to post a controversial tweet by, for example, criticising America's economic rival China.

The key political threats facing the globe in 2017 aren't necessarily front page news, although cyber threats are already causing problems with international relations. One of the biggest controversies over the Christmas period was the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats by US president Barack Obama, who accused them of being spies. This is in addition to sanctions placed on two Russian intelligence agencies over the hacking of US political groups during the 2016 presidential election. Klisman explains that, due to such silent attacks, billions of dollars are being injected into cyber projects and believes a new kind of warfare has arrived which in 2017 is only set to flourish.

As well as cyber war and Twitter squabbles, Klisman expands upon another far more tangible political threat to 2017 – military spending. With the war in Syria raging, and peace seemingly a way off, coupled with terrorist attracts in Istanbul and Berlin over the festive period, countries are ramping up their stock of military hardware to protect themselves against invasion and global threats. Donald Trump has already made his point clear that US security doesn’t come for free and isn't willing to protect other economies for a bargain fee as he sees it.