Macro Intelligence: will Trump's nuclear agenda reshape the global uranium market?

Deep dive into uranium

In this week’s edition of IG Macro Intelligence, we take a deep dive into uranium stocks to watch amid US President Trump’s plan to boost America’s nuclear capacity.

Executive orders spark uranium rally

Uranium stocks have surged since US President Trump moved to jumpstart America's nuclear energy industry on 23 May 2025.

President Trump signed four executive orders aimed at encouraging domestic uranium supply chain development to reduce reliance on foreign imports, particularly from Russia and China. The industry also benefits from Trump's tax and spending bill, which eliminated green-energy subsidies but retained nuclear power tax credits.

President Trump signs orders to revive US leadership in nuclear power

Jefferies analysts describe the signings as the most aggressive US intervention in the uranium industry in decades, while Citi analysts note new orders may nearly double US-driven global uranium demand.

'Obviously it's going to take some time for that demand to be built out for uranium. Australia is close to 10% of world supply and has an even bigger share of resources, providing some comfort,' said Saul Kavonic from MST Financial.

Australian miners benefit from US policy shift

Expectations the US could shift reliance away from major producers like Russia and China have ignited Australian-listed uranium players. Australia hosts the world's largest uranium miners outside Russia and China.

Short-sellers have scrambled to cover positions after targeting the sector amid declining spot prices. The downturn followed Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer, downgrading its 2025 production guidance by 17% late last year.

'The details look really bullish. Hopefully it puts a floor under the spot price, which drives sector sentiment. Overall, fundamentals over the past 18 months have continued getting more bullish for uranium supply,' said Heath Moss from HLM Investments.

Five-day uranium chart

Boss Energy leads uranium stock surge

Boss Energy shares have spiked more than 20% in recent sessions, recovering from a similar decline over the past 12 months. Boss Energy ranks among the most heavily shorted stocks on the Australia 200.

Jefferies upgraded its price target following President Trump's actions, expecting US nuclear capacity growth to drive U308 (Yellowcake) demand to 55-60 million pounds by 2035.

Boss Energy daily chart

According to Ord Minnett, which maintains a BUY recommendation with a $6 price target, more than half of Boss Energy's short positions may already be out-of-the-money. The broker estimates unwinding these positions would require over 14 days of average trading volumes.

Ord Minnett has modelled two uranium price scenarios - including a bear case of US$70/lb term and US$63/lb spot - expecting Boss Energy to deliver strong free cash flow yields from FY28, supported by its low-cost Honeymoon project.

'Medium and longer term, we like the sector and think there's further to run. We like Boss Energy with a buy rating, Paladin Energy with a buy, and Lotus Resources as a speculative buy,' said David Lane from Ord Minnett.

Boss Energy buy/sell indicators and analyst projections

Deep Yellow and Paladin gain momentum

Deep Yellow shares have spiked recently but remain 14% lower over 12 months. Despite heavy short interest, ASX Tradewatch data shows a strong bullish trend with the five-day moving average above the 50-day moving average.

The average price target stands at $1.46 according to Refinitiv estimates, suggesting 3% upside from recent closing prices.

Deep Yellow daily chart

Deep Yellow historical trends and price targets

Paladin Energy faces technical analysis signals indicating a mid-term bearish pattern. However, analysts remain bullish on its outlook. Shaw and Partners maintains a BUY rating with a $10.10 price target, suggesting 60% upside potential. Short interest has increased 16% week-on-week.

Paladin daily chart

Paladin historical trends and price targets

NexGen offers Canadian exposure

NexGen CDIs trade on the ASX, with the Canadian company developing the Rook I Project in northwestern Saskatchewan into a low-cost global uranium mine.

'I really like NexGen. They've been hammered, trading around $8-9 from peaks of $15-16. They have the world's largest undeveloped uranium deposit in Canada. When operational, they'll produce around 30 million pounds of uranium annually - significant compared to other major projects,' said Heath Moss.

NexGen daily chart

Strong demand outlook supports sector

US power consumption is projected to hit record levels in 2025 and 2026, driven by energy-intensive data centres supporting artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining.

Analysts say this ensures uranium demand remains strong, with America's nuclear energy readoption providing a major boost to global demand that has languished since the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

'Uranium is back. There was a brief period when hot money came out, falling from $100 to under $70 per pound. It's stabilising at that point. Nuclear energy isn't going away anytime soon,' said Stuart Roberts from Stocks Down Under.

The combination of Trump's policy support, growing energy demand, and supply constraints positions Australian uranium stocks for continued attention from investors seeking exposure to the nuclear renaissance.