Australia’s coalition party forecasts a budget surplus of $4.1 billion in 2019-20

The Australian Liberal government has confirmed a budget surplus of $4.1 billion in 2019-20.

Australia surplus budget 2019
Source: Bloomberg

After promising a budget in surplus in November, the Australian Liberal government has confirmed the budget is expected to reach a surplus of $4.1 billion next year.

On Monday the Australian government announced its mid-year economic fiscal outlook, (MYEFO) which showed the Liberal government’s plan for its budget over the next four years.

Liberal finance minister, Mathias Cormann says, Australia’s economy is stronger than ever.

The government says 2018-19 is forecast to improve the underlying cash balance from a $14.5 billion deficit at Budget to a $5.2 billion deficit, cutting the number by more than half.

The 2019-20 Budget is forecast to reach a surplus of $4.1 billion according to Mr Cormann, making it the “first surplus since the final budget of the Howard Government in 2007-08. “ Mr Cormann said in a statement.

Over the next four years, the estimated surplus will double in estimates in this year’s Budget, with an underlying cash surplus increasing to $12.5 billion in 2020-21, and even higher in 2021-22 to $19 billion.

The rate of real spending growth under the Coalition is averaging 1.9% according to the Liberal government, with net debt expected to drop each year falling from 18.2% GDP in 2018-19 to 1.5% in 2028-29.

$8.3 billion more than expected

Due to greater collections on individual and company taxes, the government has received $8.3 billion more than it expected in the first half of this financial year.

Business conditions supported the creation of over 300,000 jobs in the past year with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest, according to the MYEFO statement.

$2.45 billion in foregone revenue 2019-120

The Government expects to bring in another $375 million in budget measures, which it is yet to announce.

The MYEFO statement deatiled $2.45 billion in foregone revenue in 2019-20, and housing investment is predicted to drop 4% next year, coming after a 1% increase in 2018-19.

Big spend on aged care

One of the bigger funding allocations is set to go to aged care, spending in the sector is expected to reach $23.5 billion in 2021-21. The government confirmed it would release 10,000 high-level home care packages to help the elderly community better connect to services.

Aged care abuse has long been a hot topic in political circles, with many MPs calling on the government to do more about elder abuse, particularly after the senate inquiry into the industry.

The liberal government has addressed concerns in its budget, announcing that it intends “to help connect more older Australians with high‑level support, particularly in rural and remote areas and those at risk of homelessness.”

The government says they will also establish a new National Elder Abuse Hotline to provide a point of access to state and territory-based services for older people and their families seeking to address elder abuse.

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign marketing partners within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

This information/research prepared by IGA or IG Group is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. In addition to the disclaimer above, the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

See important Research Disclaimer.

Find articles by writer

Find out more about