Market Navigator: Nasdaq hits 30,000 as US payrolls loom
1 Jun 2026

Last week's recap: Iran ceasefire optimism, sticky inflation and China's uneven PMI

• Iran ceasefire deal edges closer: A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension emerged as US-Iran negotiations advanced. Washington reiterated three conditions — free Strait of Hormuz navigation, surrender of enriched uranium and no nuclear programme — as prerequisites for resolution. Brent crude oil fell 11% on Strait reopening optimism.
• US inflation sticky, real wages stagnate: Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) and 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) in April — slightly below consensus but well above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target. Personal income stagnated, with nominal wages advancing just 0.2% MoM. Central bank officials, including Japan's Governor Ueda, have increasingly flagged second-round inflation risks.
• Australian inflation softer, but persistent: Headline consumer price index (CPI) eased to 4.2% YoY in April from 4.6% in March, below the 4.4% consensus, as a temporary government fuel excise reduction dampened transport pressure. However, the trimmed mean rose to 3.4%, signalling underlying persistent price pressures. Rate hike expectations eased sharply, from fully pricing two 2026 hikes a fortnight ago to just 55% probability of any hike.
• China's PMI signals uneven recovery: China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.0 in May from 50.3, with production remaining in expansion but new orders slipping into contraction. The non-manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.1 from 49.4, beating consensus and returning to expansion. The mixed reading suggests domestic demand remains fragile even as output holds up.

Markets in focus: Nasdaq above 30,000 while oil tests key support

Nasdaq 100 surges past 30,000 as Dell Technologies and Micron Technology lead AI hardware rally

US equities advanced broadly last week, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 2.9% to close above 30,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. Blowout AI hardware earnings drove technology sector outperformance.

Dell Technologies reported record first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $43.8 billion, up 88% YoY, with AI-optimised server revenue surging 757% to $16.1 billion. Total revenue significantly exceeded the $35.7 billion consensus estimate, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $167 billion, representing 47% growth. The stock rallied 42.6% on the week. Super Micro Computer rose 29.5% as Dell's results corroborated robust AI server demand across the infrastructure supply chain.

Micron Technology hit a record high and crossed $1 trillion in market capitalisation for the first time, becoming the 11th-largest US public company by market value, after UBS tripled its price target from $535 to $1,625. UBS argued that long-term supply agreements with hyperscalers and AI-driven demand have structurally reduced the cyclicality of the memory chip industry, warranting a valuation multiple re-rating.

Costco declined 7.0% despite beating revenue expectations, as investors focused on slower paid membership growth and margin pressure from higher inflation and costs.

After surging 33% since 31 March, the US Tech 100 index shows little sign of slowing down. The next technical target is at 32,700, a 100% Fibonacci extension of the uptrend between April and October 2025. That said, the relative strength index (RSI) shows overbought signals and could trigger a pullback towards 29,400 — the 20-day moving average (MA).

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Hang Seng drifts lower as AI rally bypasses index and cross-border controls tighten

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined 1.7% last week, underperforming regional peers, weighed down by two structural headwinds. The index's light exposure to tech hardware names left it poorly positioned to capture the AI rally, while sentiment was further dampened by tightening controls on cross-border capital flows. Authorities penalised Futu Holdings, Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities for illegal cross-border securities operations, and Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a circular tightening account-opening requirements. Southbound Stock Connect flows recorded only HK$800 million of net inflow over the week.

Lenovo was a notable exception, surging 52% to an all-time high after reporting fourth-quarter revenue up 27% YoY to US$21.6 billion and net profit up 479%, driven by AI server infrastructure demand. Dell's blowout results provided an additional tailwind for personal computer companies with AI data centre exposure.

Meituan plunged 9% to its lowest level since February 2024 after reports of large-scale layoffs — subsequently denied — underscored investor sensitivity to cost-cutting concerns amid intense food delivery competition. Alibaba also declined. PDD Holdings saw net income fall 15% despite 11% revenue growth, and announced plans to invest RMB 100 billion over three years in a first-party brand business — signalling competition is shifting from user growth towards supply-chain control.

The HSI briefly dropped below 25,000 before rebounding to close at 25,182. Support near 24,900 appears intact, but technical momentum shows little sign of improvement. Resistance has shifted lower to 25,900, near the 20-day MA, with the index likely to trade sideways until a decisive break above 26,000 is recorded.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index daily price chart

WTI crude falls 10% as Iran deal optimism offsets supply deficit

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell almost 10% last week as progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations raised expectations of a Strait of Hormuz reopening. However, the scale of the underlying supply disruption suggests prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels swiftly.

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) May Oil Market Report laid bare the severity of the supply shock. The Strait closure has shut in more than 14 million barrels per day (mb/d) of Gulf production, partially offset by record output increases from the Americas — including the US, Brazil, Canada and Venezuela — as well as higher Russian exports. Nevertheless, global supply is projected to average 102.2 mb/d in 2026, against demand of 104 mb/d, leaving a deficit of 1.8 mb/d for the year. The IEA expects the market to remain in deficit until the fourth quarter. Rebuilding depleted inventories — which have drawn down at a record pace — could require an additional 1 mb/d of supply for the next three years.

The futures curve reflects market confidence that a resolution is achievable by year-end, with December 2026 WTI crude oil futures at around $79 per barrel trading materially below the July contract near $88. Yet even this optimistic scenario implies prices remaining well above pre-war levels of approximately $62. The broader futures curve does not project a return to pre-war pricing until 2031 — suggesting elevated prices will persist long after any near-term diplomatic resolution.

Ceasefire hopes have driven US crude oil prices down to the lower boundary of the recent range near $86, testing support from the early-May lows. Failure to hold may trigger further decline towards the $79–$80 level. The medium-term uptrend remains intact as long as prices trade above the 200-day MA. Immediate resistance is at the 50-day MA near $95.

Figure 3: US crude oil undated contract daily price chart

Week ahead: US non-farm payrolls, PMIs and Broadcom earnings

This week's focus centres on US activity data, European inflation and the monthly labour market report, each carrying meaningful implications for monetary policy across major economies.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings will offer the clearest near-term read on US economic momentum. May's S&P Global PMI survey pointed to a pickup in manufacturing activity, while services — which account for roughly two-thirds of the US economy — eased modestly. Forward-looking sentiment diverged sharply: manufacturers grew more optimistic on increasing orders, while services confidence fell to its weakest in over a year amid concerns over declining demand. These readings take on added significance following the downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth, from 2.0% to 1.6% annualised, reflecting softer investment and consumer spending.

Eurozone inflation data on Tuesday will be closely watched ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) 11 June policy meeting, particularly as energy cost impacts remain partially cushioned elsewhere by regulatory caps and temporary government measures.

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to rise by 96,000 in May, a deceleration from April, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 23 May came in at 215,000 — slightly above consensus but still below historical averages, suggesting the labour market remains resilient. A material miss could dampen expectations for a Fed rate hike by year-end.

On the corporate front, Meituan reports on Monday, with investors watching for margin recovery amid China's intense food delivery competition, while Broadcom's results on Wednesday will be assessed for evidence that Alphabet's tensor processing units (TPUs) can drive the next phase of growth for the company.

Figure 4: US employment data

Key macro events this week: US PMI and non-farm payrolls

(All times in GMT+8)

Monday 1 June 2026

• 9.45am — China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (May): previous 52.2, consensus 51.4
• 10.00pm — US ISM manufacturing PMI (May): previous 52.7, consensus 52.6

Tuesday 2 June 2026

• 5.00pm — Euro Area inflation rate YoY flash (May): previous 3%, consensus 3.3%
• 10.00pm — US JOLTs job openings (April): previous 6.866 million, consensus 6.8 million

Wednesday 3 June 2026

• 9.30am — Australia GDP growth rate QoQ (Q1): previous 0.8%, consensus 0.5%
• 8.15pm — US ADP employment change (May): previous 109,000, consensus 110,000
• 10.00pm — US ISM services PMI (May): previous 53.6, consensus 53.6

Thursday 4 June 2026

• 9.30am — Australia trade balance (April): previous A$-1.841 billion,consensus A$-1.61 billion

Friday 5 June 2026

• 8.30pm — US non-farm payrolls (May): previous 115,000, consensus 96,000
• 8.30pm — US unemployment rate (May): previous 4.3%, consensus 4.3%

Key corporate earnings: Meituan and Broadcom under spotlight

(In local exchange time)

Monday 1 June 2026

• Meituan

Tuesday 2 June 2026

• Palo Alto

Wednesday 3 June 2026

• Broadcom
• CrowdStrike

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 31 May 2026)}