Market navigator: week of 17 November 2025
US government shutdown ends but data delays persist. Chinese tech earnings impress while Bitcoin falls 25% from peak. Fed decision uncertainty and Nvidia earnings dominate this week.
Summary
- What happened last week: US government shutdown ends after 43 days. China's economic data disappoints. Australia's labour market improves while Japan's PM outlines stimulus plans.
- Markets in focus: US equities rotate from tech to defensives. Hang Seng struggles above 27,000. Bitcoin plunges to six-month low.
- The week ahead: Delayed US employment data and FOMC minutes dominate. Japan GDP contracts. Nvidia earnings in focus.
What happened last week
- Government shutdown concludes: The 43-day shutdown ended after some Democrats advanced legislation funding federal agencies until 30 January and providing food aid until September. Over 700,000 furloughed employees will return to work, flight schedules will normalise, and delayed economic data releases commence this week. Economic impacts may persist for weeks.
- China's economy weakens: Industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year (YoY) in October while retail sales rose 2.9%, both representing the slowest growth rates since August 2024. Property price declines deepened alongside fixed-asset investment contraction, challenging China's 5% growth target amid external uncertainties.
- Australia's labour market strengthens: October unemployment declined to 4.3% from 4.5% as employment rose by 42,200, validating the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hold decision. Given the stability in labour market and heightened inflation risk, the RBA appears unlikely to cut rates until Q2 2026. AUD/USD appreciated 0.7%, reclaiming 0.65.
- Takaichi outlines vision: Japan's prime minister is developing stimulus plans for 17 sectors including artificial intelligence (AI) and defence while urging Bank of Japan caution. She aims to ensure corporations allocate resources to employees alongside shareholders, potentially reversing corporate governance reforms. The Nikkei 225 gained 0.2% while USD/JPY briefly exceeded 155.
Markets in focus
Sector rotation emerges in US equities
Notable sector rotation took place as capital migrated from technology companies exhibiting stretched valuations towards more defensive, reasonably valued sectors such as healthcare. The Nasdaq 100 declined 0.2%, while the Dow Jones advanced 0.3%.
Vulnerabilities within the AI sector are becoming apparent, with TSMC recording its slowest monthly revenue growth rate in 18 months and CoreWeave reducing annual guidance due to data centre development delays.
Despite government operations resuming, certain consequences remain irreversible. The October employment report will exclude the unemployment rate as the Bureau of Labor Statistics proved unable to conduct its survey during the shutdown. The release schedule for October inflation data remains uncertain, although the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge — core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — has been scheduled for 26 November.
Markets are increasingly concerned that the Fed may postpone its next interest rate reduction due to incomplete economic data. Fed officials remain divided regarding whether inflation or employment assumes priority within the dual mandate. Current bond futures pricing indicates the probability of a December rate cut has declined further below 50%, intensifying pressure on equity markets.
From a technical perspective, following the loss of the 20-day moving average (MA), the US Tech 100 is currently testing support at the 50-day MA. Failure to maintain this level implies further downside potential towards 24,600, approximately a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward wave. The critical support zone resides around 23,000. Breaching this critical support would materially increase the probability of bear market development. Recovery attempts may encounter resistance near 25,500.
Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart
Hang Seng Index: 27,000 establishes formidable resistance
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) appreciated 1.3% over the week, supported by robust corporate earnings. However, the index continues struggling to establish firm support above 27,000, suggesting ongoing consolidation.
Chinese technology leaders have commenced earnings releases. Tencent surpassed expectations with 15% year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth in Q3 and a 19% increase in net income. International gaming operations served as the primary revenue driver, surging 43%. The company's strategic focus on integrating AI into core platforms differentiates it from competitors investing heavily in AI infrastructure.
Following a 60% surge in Singles' Day sales, JD.com exceeded estimates with Q3 revenue advancing 15%, supported by government consumption subsidies. Net income declined 55% YoY to RMB5.3 billion, representing a smaller decrease than anticipated. Alibaba, another significant Chinese technology enterprise, will announce financial results on 25 November.
Disappointing macroeconomic indicators may dampen near-term risk appetite as investors scrutinise the disconnect between substantial year-to-date equity market gains and actual economic conditions. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) downplayed the significance of loan growth deceleration while promoting 'cross-cyclical' policy adjustments, indicating heightened emphasis on long-term economic stability rather than short-term recovery. Consequently, markets can no longer anticipate PBOC rate reductions to support risk assets before year-end.
Although the HSI regained momentum last week, the immediate rejection near 27,000 suggests the index continues establishing a foundation for further advancement. Should the 50-day MA fail to provide support, the index will retreat into corrective Wave C within Elliott Wave theory, targeting approximately 24,800. Conversely, a rebound above 26,300 demonstrates strong likelihood of the index reverting to the ascending channel pattern established since mid-April, with the recent peak of 27,382 providing key resistance.
Figure 2: Hang Seng Index (daily) price chart
Bitcoin plummeted to six-month low
Bitcoin's correction extended into its third consecutive week, declining nearly 10% to just below 95,000 as market participants reassess the likelihood of a December rate reduction and overall risk appetite.
From its early October peak, Bitcoin has declined approximately 25%, satisfying the technical definition of a bear market. This represents a dramatic reversal from the optimism prevailing two months prior.
Clear evidence indicates diminished institutional investor demand. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flow data from Coinglass reveals net outflows exceeding US$2.3 billion through November.
As the cryptocurrency breached 100,000 and demonstrates limited recovery signals, new investor interest remains subdued while existing long-term holders are reducing exposures or crystallising profits approaching year-end.
On the bright side, government reopening will restart progress on the Clarity Act, which aims to establish comprehensive regulatory frameworks for the cryptocurrency industry beyond stablecoins. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will address the extensive backlog of cryptocurrency ETF approvals accumulated since the shutdown commenced. Both developments may improve cryptocurrency market sentiment.
Bitcoin's recent price action exhibits characteristics of corrective Wave C under Elliott Wave theory. Typically, Wave C matches or exceeds Wave A's magnitude, potentially driving Bitcoin below $93,750 should this pattern materialise as anticipated. A breach below this technically significant level may amplify the drawdown as numerous traders face forced liquidation.
The relative strength index (RSI) warrants close monitoring. A decline below 30 may signal oversold conditions, prompting a technical rebound. However, such recovery attempts will encounter resistance near $107,000.
Figure 3: Bitcoin (daily) price chart
The week ahead
The Fed's policy trajectory dominates this week's agenda as September employment data is expected following the government shutdown's prolonged disruption to statistical releases. Markets will scrutinise these delayed figures for confirmation of labour market softening that prompted a risk management rate reduction in October. Thursday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes assume critical importance, potentially revealing internal debate surrounding December's rate decision and how policymakers balance labour market weakness against tariff-induced inflation risks. With markets evenly divided on the probability of a December rate cut, any deviation from consensus in employment figures could dramatically reshape expectations for the Fed's easing trajectory.
Japan's economic health also commands attention as third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures are expected to reveal the economy's first contraction in six quarters. The anticipated decline stems from weakening export demand and a pronounced downturn in housing investment, potentially providing Prime Minister Takaichi's administration with economic justification for expanded fiscal stimulus measures.
Manufacturing and services sector health across major economies will be scrutinised through November's flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings, with particular focus on whether US services can sustain expansion above 54 and whether UK manufacturing can finally breach the 50 threshold after residing in contractionary territory for twelve months.
Corporate earnings reach their crescendo with Nvidia's results on Wednesday evening—the final and arguably most anticipated report amongst the Magnificent Seven technology leaders. Following concerns regarding AI growth deceleration and elevated valuations across the semiconductor sector, the chipmaker faces heightened expectations to deliver exceptional results justifying its premium valuation. The retail sector also commands attention, with Home Depot and Walmart reporting results that should clarify whether US consumer resilience can withstand persistent tariff-driven cost pressures.
Chinese consumption trends emerge through Xiaomi and PDD's quarterly figures, while Baidu's performance will provide valuable perspective on domestic AI investment appetite.
Figure 4: US employment change (non-farm payroll vs. ADP)
Key macro events this week
Potential data release from delay caused by the US government shutdown
- US non-farm payrolls (September): previous 22K, consensus 50K
- US unemployment rate (September): previous 4.3%, consensus 4.3%
- US non-farm payrolls (October)
- US trade balance (August): previous -$78.3B, consensus -$60.4B
- US core inflation rate MoM (October): previous 0.2%; consensus 0.3%
- US producer price index (PPI) MoM (September): previous -0.1%, consensus 0.3%
- US PPI MoM (October)
- US retail sales MoM (September): previous 0.6%, consensus 0.4%
- US retail sales MoM (October)
Monday 17 November 2025
- 7.50am (HK time)—Japan GDP growth rate QoQ Prel (Q3): previous 0.5%, consensus -0.6%
Tuesday 18 November 2025
- 8.30am (HK time)—Australia RBA meeting minutes
- 9.15pm (HK time)—US ADP employment change weekly: previous -11,250
Wednesday 19 November 2025
- 7.50am (HK time)—Japan balance of trade (October): previous -¥234.6B, consensus -¥280B
- 3.00pm (HK time)—UK inflation rate YoY (October): previous 3.8%, consensus 3.6%
Thursday 20 November 2025
- 3.00am (HK time)—US FOMC minutes
- 11.00pm (HK time)—US existing home sales (October): previous 4.06M, consensus 4.06M
Friday 21 November 2025
- 7.30am (HK time)—Japan inflation rate YoY (October): previous 2.9%
- 3.00pm (HK time)—UK retail sales MoM (October): previous 0.5%, consensus 0.1%
- 5.30pm (HK time)—UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash (November): previous 49.7, consensus 49.2
- 5.30pm (HK time)—UK S&P Global services PMI flash (November): previous 52.3, consensus 51.9
- 10.45pm (HK time)—US S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash (November): previous 52.5
- 10.45pm (HK time)—US S&P Global services PMI flash (November): previous 54.3
Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 17 November 2025)
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