Market navigator:
week of 13 April 2026

What happened last week

• Middle East ceasefire, strait still closed: A two-week ceasefire prompted a sharp market rally. However, reports of continued attacks cast doubt on its durability, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the weekend failed to reach a resolution; US threatened to block the Strait on Monday. Brent crude oil surged 8% on Monday open.
• China prices turn a corner: China's consumer price index (CPI) held in positive territory at 1.0% year-on-year (YoY) in March, easing from the Lunar New Year-inflated 1.3% in February. More notably, the producer price index (PPI) turned positive for the first time in 41 months, rising 0.5% YoY. Combined with recent data showing expanding activity across manufacturing and services, the Chinese economy is showing broadening recovery momentum.
• US inflation elevated before the war: The Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), held at 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) in February — before the conflict. Headline CPI surged 0.9% MoM in March, the largest increase since June 2022, driven by the energy price spike. Stripping out food and energy, core CPI rose a contained 0.2%. Market pricing for a 2026 rate hike has been fully unwound.
• US consumer sentiment deteriorates: Inflation-adjusted spending rose just 0.1% MoM, while real average hourly wages grew only 0.3% YoY — the slowest pace since 2023. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a historic low of 47.6 in April. Together, these indicators point to a meaningful slowdown in household spending and heightened stagflation risk.

Markets in focus

US equities extend relief rally

US equity markets extended their ceasefire-driven market rally last week, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 4.5% — fully recouping losses sustained since the conflict began on 28 February — while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones advanced 3.6% and 3.0% respectively. Communication services, technology and consumer discretionary led sectoral gains, while energy reversed course after recent outperformance as oil prices eased on ceasefire optimism.

Performance within the technology sector was sharply divergent. Intel surged 23.8% on the back of a multiyear Google partnership for artificial intelligence (AI) data centre infrastructure and its participation in Elon Musk's Terafab semiconductor facility project, reinforcing its repositioning as a domestic foundry play. Memory chip names broadly rebounded, with SanDisk soaring 21.4% after raising NAND flash memory prices, signalling concrete demand from AI data centre operators against constrained supply. In contrast, Palantir and ServiceNow fell 13.7% and 18.6% respectively amid renewed concerns that AI automation threatens the traditional software business model.

The US Tech 100 index has reclaimed its 200-day moving average (MA) through the relief rally. Technical momentum has also improved, with the relative strength index (RSI) breaking above its prevailing downtrend line. That said, a sustained close above 25,200 over several sessions would be required to confirm this is more than a dead-cat bounce fuelled by a temporary ceasefire. A successful hold above this level would enable the index to challenge the historic high near 26,200.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Hang Seng Index lags regional peers

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) gained 3.1% last week but underperformed broader Asian markets as Japan and Korea — which had been more severely sold off during the conflict given their acute dependence on Middle East energy imports — staged sharper ceasefire-driven recoveries. The Nikkei 225 and KOSPI surged 7.2% and 9.0% respectively. Gains were additionally supported late in the week by China's inflation data, where the positive turn in producer prices reinforced the reflation narrative and lifted sentiment towards China equities.

Sector performance was bifurcated. Industrials and materials led gains, with CATL surging 9.5% ahead of its 15 April earnings release, buoyed by investor expectations of another strong quarter and growing enthusiasm for the energy storage sector as elevated oil prices accelerate the clean energy transition. CMOC and China Hongqiao also rebounded as metal prices recovered on easing conflict-related supply chain concerns. Energy and healthcare were the weakest sectors, with SinoBiopharm and CSPC Pharmaceutical falling 6.5% and 4.6% respectively as investors rotated into more cyclically sensitive names.

Technically, the HSI has reclaimed its 200-day MA after completing the formation of a double-bottom pattern, implying that the correction is likely complete and the short-to-medium-term trend has turned bullish. Should the index manage to break above the 50-day MA near 26,130, it has the potential to challenge the next resistance level near 27,200. Failure to do so would likely see the index remain range-bound between 25,380 and 26,130.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index daily price chart

Crude oil posts sharpest weekly decline since 2020

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures plunged 13.4% last week — the sharpest weekly decline since February 2020 — as the ceasefire announcement triggered an aggressive unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude oil fell 12.7% over the same period, with the single-session sell-off on ceasefire day representing Brent's steepest one-day drop since 2020.

However, the sharp price decline may be overdone, as the underlying supply picture remains far from resolved. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with just a handful of vessels transiting since the ceasefire compared to the pre-war daily average of 135 vessels. According to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, Gulf producers are estimated to have collectively shut in approximately 9.1 million barrels per day in April — close to 10% of global demand. Prices partially recovered towards the weekend as the ceasefire's fragility became apparent, with both sides trading accusations of violations.

The market now faces a delicate balancing act: ceasefire optimism continues to suppress the risk premium, yet even a full reopening of the strait may take weeks or months to translate into normalised supply flows, given vessel backlogs, mine clearance operations and infrastructure damage.

Technically, US crude oil has entered a consolidation phase between $86 and $108 following the 9 March rejection. While the long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day MA, failure to reclaim the 20-day MA ($98.7) maintains immediate downward pressure on the range floor. Conversely, a recovery above the 20-day MA would allow oil prices to re-challenge the $108 resistance level.

Figure 3: US crude oil daily price chart

The week ahead

This week's attention centres on a dense slate of Chinese economic data, with releases spanning trade, housing, fixed asset investment and first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). China's Q1 GDP will be the first reading since Beijing set a 4.5%–5% growth target for 2025 — the most modest on record since the early 1990s. The deliberately wider band grants local governments flexibility to structurally address excess industrial capacity and fiscal sustainability, without the burden of an overly ambitious headline target.

The major cities house price index warrants close attention. While recent data on inflation, retail sales and manufacturing have shown improvement, property remains a persistent drag. February's reading was the weakest in eight months, and with residential real estate accounting for roughly 70% of urban household wealth, a sustained recovery in domestic demand is difficult to envision without meaningful price stabilisation.

In Australia, employment data will inform expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. Evidence of continued labour market tightness could raise the probability of a third interest rates hike this year.

On the corporate front, Q1 earnings season opens with major US banks, ASML, TSMC and Netflix among the first to report. The major US bank results will offer an early read on how financial institutions are navigating slower global growth induced by the Middle East conflict — particularly through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, loan loss provisions and trading revenues. ASML and TSMC's results will be scrutinised for signals on the durability of AI-driven capital expenditure. According to FactSet, analysts anticipate 13.2% YoY earnings growth for Q1 — revised upward from 12.8% at end-2025, driven largely by energy, technology and financials. However, estimates for the remaining eight S&P 500 sectors have been trimmed, and given recent market fragility, any disappointment from high-profile names risks triggering renewed selling pressure.

Figure 4: China economic data

Key macro events this week

(All times in GMT+8)

Monday 13 April 2026

• 10.00pm — US existing home sales (March): previous 4.09 million, consensus 4.01 million

Tuesday 14 April 2026

• 8.30am — Australia Westpac consumer confidence change (April): previous 1.2%
• 9.30am — Australia NAB business confidence (March): previous -1
• 11.00am — China trade balance (March): previous $90.98 billion, consensus $112 billion
• 11.00am — China exports YoY (March): previous 39.6%, consensus 8.3%
• 11.00am — China imports YoY (March): previous 13.8%, consensus 11.1%
• 8.30pm — US PPI MoM (March): previous 0.7%, consensus 1.2%

Thursday 16 April 2026

• 9.30am — Australia employment change (March): previous 48,900, consensus 20,000
• 9.30am — Australia unemployment rate (March): previous 4.3%, consensus 4.3%
• 9.30am — China house price index YoY (March): previous -3.2%
• 10.00am — China GDP growth rate YoY (Q1): previous 4.5%, consensus 4.8%
• 10.00am — China industrial production YoY (March): previous 6.3%, consensus 5.6%
• 10.00am — China retail sales YoY (March): previous 2.8%, consensus 2.4%
• 2.00pm — UK GDP MoM (February): previous 0%, consensus 0.1%

Key corporate earnings

(In local exchange time)

Monday 13 April 2026

• Goldman Sachs

Tuesday 14 April 2026

• JPMorgan Chase
• Johnson & Johnson
• Wells Fargo
• Citigroup

Wednesday 15 April 2026

• ASML
• Bank of America
• Morgan Stanley

Thursday 16 April 2026

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
• Netflix
• PepsiCo

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 12 April 2026)}