English
Nasdaq 100 probes key support as USD/JPY, Brent crude oil rally
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it probes key support while USD/JPY, Brent crude oil rally.
Macro update
Oil surge:
Prices climbed around 3% to above $110 a barrel after Iran targeted energy infrastructure across the Gulf, intensifying fears of supply disruption.
Middle East escalation:
Strikes on facilities in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia signalled a shift towards critical energy assets, raising the risk of a prolonged conflict.
Equity sell-off:
Asian markets fell sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping more than 3% and broader regional indices weakening as investors priced in stagflation risks.
Central banks remain cautious:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged and indicated only one cut this year, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also held policy steady, citing uncertainty from rising energy costs.
Dollar strength and yields:
The US dollar stayed near multi-month highs and US two-year yields moved higher as expectations for rate cuts were pushed back.
FX and commodities moves:
The Japanese yen hovered near 160 per dollar, gold steadied after recent declines, and natural gas prices rose alongside oil on supply concerns.
Nasdaq 100 slips
The Nasdaq 100 has resumed its descent and is weighing on its recent March lows at 24,336 - 24,289. Were a daily chart close below this support area to be made, the late September to October 2025 lows at 24,207 - 24,186 may be reached next. Further down lies the November trough at 23,854.
Minor resistance now sits at the early February 24,455 low and at the December 24,647 trough.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 17 March 24,884 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bearish undertone while above the 9 March low at 24,289; failure there would turn the forecast bearish, targeting the November low at 23,854.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY pushes into resistance zone
USD/JPY's rally has so far taken it to ¥159.90, close to the psychological ¥160.00 region with the ¥160.16 - ¥160.21 April 1990 to April 2024 highs sitting slightly above it.
While Wednesday's high at ¥159.90 caps, the February to March uptrend line at ¥158.88 may be revisited. While Wednesday's low at ¥158.57 underpins, though, upside pressure is expected to be maintained.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 18 March ¥158.57 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 5 March low at ¥156.46.
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent nears March $113.73 peak
The price of Brent crude oil continues to surge and is fast approaching its early March $113.73 high, a rise above which would push the June 2022 peak at $115.87 to the fore.
Still further up lie the March to May 2022 highs at $120.02 - $120.29.
Potential slips may find support between Wednesday's high and Thursday's intraday low at $108.23 - $106.37. Further down lies the 16 March high at $103.14 which may also act as minor support.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 18 March $97.65 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 10 March low at $79.74.
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Follow us online
