FTSE 100 tries to find support while EUR/USD, WTI recover  

Macro update

Nikkei breaks through 67,000 amid AI-driven rally: Japan’s benchmark index climbed 1.1% to a fresh record above 67,000, with SoftBank accounting for the bulk of the gains after committing €75bn to French AI infrastructure projects. The move helped the technology investor surpass Toyota as Japan’s most valuable listed company.

South Korea outperforms regional peers: The Kospi advanced 4.2%, building on last week’s strong gains, after the country reported record export figures for May and its fastest annual growth rate in decades. Samsung also surged around 10% after announcing shipments of samples of its latest high-bandwidth memory chips.

Middle East tensions intensify: The US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone-control facilities over the weekend, prompting retaliatory action from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Kuwait reported intercepting missile and drone attacks, while Israel expanded military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah.

Oil prices rebound: Brent crude climbed back above $93 per barrel while WTI hit $90, as renewed conflict reduced expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume in the near term. The waterway remains a critical route for global energy supplies.

Rate hike expectations increase ahead of payrolls: US Treasury yields moved higher as investors priced in a greater possibility of further Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. Attention now turns to the upcoming US jobs report, which is expected to provide an important gauge of labour market strength.

Dollar holds firm while gold eases: The US dollar remained broadly stable against major peers, with the yen and euro pressured by concerns over higher energy costs. Gold edged lower despite heightened geopolitical risks, continuing to struggle to attract sustained safe-haven demand.

FTSE 100 tries to find support

The FTSE 100 is trading at one-week lows and is trying to hold above its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 10,349 whilst attempting to overcome minor resistance at the 10,400 mid-May high. If successful, the 10,417-to-10,494 resistance area may be reached next, together with the mid-April low at 10,494.

Were a slip through the 55-day SMA to be witnessed, however, the early April low at 10,329 may be reached instead. Further down lies the 11 May low at 10,287.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 28 May high at 10,499

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish undertone while above the 18 May low at 10,113

FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart

EUR/USD tries to recover further

EUR/USD seems to be in the process of recovering from its May six-week low at $1.1577 with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.1681 remaining in sight. If exceeded it and the 29 May high at $1.1685 were to be exceeded, the 8 May low at $1.1722 may be reached next.

A fall through the May $1.1577 low may push the $1.1550 region to the fore.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above $1.1577, targeting the $1.1720 region in the first instance

Medium-term outlook: neutral while below $1.1849 but above the  $1.1577 May trough

EUR/USD daily candlestick chart

WTI bounces back

WTI reversed its short-term trend from last week's $86.35 per barrel six-week low and has so far risen above the $90.00 mark.  The early April low at $91.05 may also be reached. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the $94.73-to-$95.44 resistance zone may be retested.

A fall through the late May $86.35 low would put the 23 March low at $84.37 on the map. Minor support above this level may be spotted around the $88.66 early May low.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 18 May $105.21 high

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while above the $78.97 April low but below the March peak at $119.48

WTI daily candlestick chart