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FTSE 100 slips as EUR/USD and WTI rise
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 as it retraces lower while EUR/USD and WTI advance.
Macro update
Oil surge: Brent crude climbed over 3% to roughly $91 a barrel, with WTI near $88, as renewed US-Iran tensions reignited supply concerns following last week’s sharp sell-off.
Hormuz disruption: Shipping through the strait remains heavily constrained despite brief reopening signals, with around 10–11 million barrels per day still offline and tanker operators cautious over renewed attacks.
Geopolitical escalation: The US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend triggered retaliation threats from Tehran, casting doubt on the durability of the ceasefire.
Talks stall: Iran rejected plans for a second round of negotiations ahead of the ceasefire deadline, undermining confidence in a near-term diplomatic resolution.
Risk sentiment mixed: US and European equity futures declined while Asian markets advanced, indicating expectations of an eventual deal despite near-term tensions.
Safe-haven bid: The dollar strengthened to a one-week high and bond yields edged higher, as oil-driven inflation concerns re-emerged as the key macro transmission channel.
FTSE 100 slips
The FTSE 100 is back in risk-off territory as markets digest the ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The UK blue chip index so far remains above its Wednesday-to-Friday lows of last week at 10,548-to-10,536, though. While this remains the case, Friday's high at 10,697 remains in sight.
Short-term outlook: consolidating while below the current April high at 10,724
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 10,329
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD dips but remains bullish
EUR/USD is expected to resume its advance, having slid to $1.1729 before recovering towards the $1.1800 region.
Were a drop through $1.1729 to be seen, though, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.1673 may be back in the frame but may act as support.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 20 April intraday low at $1.1729
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 6 April $1.1506 low
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI rallies once more
Reignited tensions in the Middle East has pushed the price of crude back up again, to around $88 per barrel with the April resistance line at $89.90 so far capping the upside.
While this remains the case, the 23 March low at $84.37 may be revisited. Below it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.97 which may also offer interim support.
Resistance above $89.90 can be spotted at the 8 April $91.05 low and also at the 16 April $95.44 high.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 16 April $95.44 high
Medium-term outlook: toppish while below the 13 April high at $105.63
WTI daily candlestick chart
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