WTI trades in 1-month high as EUR/USD, FTSE 100 slip    

Macro update

​Oil prices extend rally: WTI climbed to $116.56 as supply concerns intensified, with prices now up more than 50% since the Iran war began.

​Hormuz shutdown drives risk: The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, has severely disrupted exports and tightened global supply.

​Trump deadline approaches: Markets are focused on a US-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with threats of strikes on infrastructure increasing escalation risks.

​Diplomacy stalls: Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent end to the conflict, leaving negotiations fragile and unresolved.

​Markets turn cautious: Equities were mixed and the dollar remained near recent highs as investors adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the deadline.

​Inflation and supply concerns intensify: Rising energy prices are fuelling stagflation fears, widening crude premiums and forcing refiners to seek alternative sources of supply.

​FTSE 100 back under pressure

​The FTSE 100 is back in risk-off territory as markets await the outcome of US President Trump's latest Iran ultimatum. The index is seen coming off the 10,500 region - a one-month high - and may slip back towards the 10,350 zone or lower in the course of this week while Tuesday's intraday high at 10,514 caps.

​The area around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 10,359 may act as support, ahead of the more significant 2 April low at 10,252.

​Short-term outlook: toppish while below 10,514, targeting the 10,350 region

​Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 30 March low at 9,856

​FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart

​EUR/USD range trades in low volatility

​EUR/USD is expected to continue to sideways trade above its 23 March low at $1.1485 and its $1.1648 mid-March high. 

​Minor support sits at Monday's $1.1506 low, below which lies the 23 March low at $1.1485. Failure there would likely engage the  19 March low at $1.1443, below which lie the mid-March low at $1.1411 and the $1.1392 August 2025 low.

​While the $1.1506 level holds, a recovery towards Monday's $1.1571 high and then the $1.1600 region may still ensue.

​Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while below the 17-20 March highs and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.1648-to-$1.1672

​Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the $1.1831 late February high, potentially targeting the $1.1392 August 2025 low

​EUR/USD daily candlestick chart

WTI trades in one-month high

​Heightened tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed the price of crude to around $116 per barrel mark, close to its March peak at $119.48 which remains in sight. This will likely be the case while WTI stays above its 6 April low at $108.89 on a daily chart closing basis. 

​Were a bearish reversal to take the price of WTI to below $108.89, the late March high at $106.86 would probably be eyed, together with the mid-March highs at $102.44-to-$101.67.

​Short-term outlook: bullish while above the $108.89

​Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 1 April low at $96.50

​WTI daily candlestick chart