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The week ahead: 24-29 August

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

Will preliminary US GDP provide equity direction on Monday?
Source: Bloomberg

Global equity markets have seen a turnaround in the past week, with better-than-expected US macro data and speculation that the European Central Bank will bravely go where every other major central bank has gone and embark on quantitative easing.

The Jackson Hole symposium should provide additional fodder for traders to get their teeth into and, depending on Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, could provide impetus to build on the recent moves.

Monday is a bank holiday in the UK but there is still plenty of macro data due out during the rest of the week. Preliminary US GDP and German CPI could well be the key releases for equity direction.

Economic reports

Monday

German IFO business climate (Aug), 9.00am: The leading data point fell to 108.0 in July, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and missing estimates of 109.4. Expectations are for a print of 107 now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, DAX

US services PMI (Aug) 14.45pm: This hit 60.8 in July – it is expected to pare back a little to 59.1 in August. Market to watch: US Indices, dollar crosses  

US new home sales (Jul), 3.00pm: Housing data stateside has been decent lately. The prior number was 406,000; it is expected to print 425000 this time. Market to watch: US Indices, dollar crosses  

Tuesday

BBA mortgage approvals (July), 9.30am: Number of new mortgage approvals is expected to improve on last month to 44,000. Market to watch: GBP/USD, FTSE, EUR/GBP

US core durable goods orders (July), 1.30pm: This was weak last month, with a rise of 0.7% recorded. A rise of 7.5% month-on-month is expected now. Market to watch: Dow Jones, dollar crosses

CB consumer confidence (August) 3.00pm: Expected to decline from last month’s 90.9 to 88.8. Market to watch: Dow Jones, dollar crosses

Wednesday

German GFK consumer confidence (August), 7.00am: A small reduction on last month’s 9.0 print to 8.9 is expected. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD

Crude oil inventories (week end 28 August), 3.30pm: Inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending 15 August. Market to watch: Oil, Dollar index

Thursday

German preliminary CPI (August), 1.00pm: An increase of 0.3% was recorded in July; it is expected to come in flat in August. Year-on-year figure is expected to stay at 0.8%. Market to watch: Euro crosses, DAX, Bunds

Eurozone M3 money supply (July), 9.00am: Expected to stay static at 1.5% YoY. Market to watch:  EUR/USD, European indices

US preliminary GDP q/q (Q2) 1.30pm: The previous version was 2.0%. It is expected to stay the same on the quarter. Market to watch:  Dollar crosses, global indices.

US unemployment claims (Aug 23) 1.30pm: Expected to see a small increase on the previous week; 300,000 weekly claims expected. Market to watch:  Dow Jones, SPX, EUR/USD, USD crosses

US pending home sales (July) 3.00pm: This fell by 1.1% last time round. A small increase of 0.5% MoM is slated now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, Dow Jones, SPX, dollar crosses

Friday

Japanese CPI (July), 12.30am: Saw a year on year rise of 3.6% last time. Expected to fall back to 3.4% YoY now. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crosses

Japanese industrial production (July), 12.50am: An improvement on last month’s number (-3.4%) to 1.3% MoM expected. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crosses

Japanese retail sales (July), 12.50am: A rise of 0.3% on the month is the consensus which equates to a decline of -0.1% annualised. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crosses

Eurozone CPI estimate (August), 10.00am: Inflation is expected to remain subdued at a 0.3% rise YoY. This is lower than last month’s 0.4%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, FTSE, DAX, CAC

US Chicago PMI (August), 2.45pm: Improvement on last month’s disappointing 52.6 is the forecast here. 56.2 print is the median consensus. Dollar crosses, US indices.

 

Company announcements

Tuesday

Antofagasta, Bunzl, WPP, Petrofac

Wednesday

Foxtons, Evraz

Thursday

Hays, Wolfson Microelectronics, Oxford Biomedica, Samsonite International

Friday

Hardy Oil & GasGriffin Mining, Abercrombie & Fitch

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