The week ahead: 9-13 June

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

Bank of England
Source: Bloomberg

The big news of the week has come on Friday. Mark Carney hinted that rate increases would come earlier than expected, causing GBP/USD to spike and prompting a general selloff in the housing sector as investors fretted about a slump in demand for homes. Indices have failed to make further progress this week, after a good start to June.

In addition, the prospect of further conflict in Iraq saw a surge in the oil price, and this has caused worries in equity markets as well – higher oil prices can signal lower corporate profits, lower consumer spending and slower economic growth.

Economic reports

Monday

Eurozone CPI (May, final), 10am: This gauge of price growth in the eurozone is expected to drop to -0.1%, down from previous readings of 0.2%
Market to watch: EUR/USD

US Empire manufacturing index (June), 1.30pm: This index of manufacturing in New York state is forecast to fall to 15 from 19.01 last month.
Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500

US industrial and manufacturing production (May), 2.15pm: Output in this part of the economy is expected to rise by 0.5% in May.
Market to watch: Dow JonesS&P 500, US dollar crosses

Tuesday

UK CPI (May), 9.30am: UK price growth is expected to ease to 1.7% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month from 1.8% and 0.4% last month.
Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

German ZEW (June), 10am: The current situation survey from the ZEW index is not forecast to change this month, remaining at 62.1.
Market to watch:DAX, EUR/USD

US CPI, housing starts, building permits (May), 1.30pm: The plethora of US data is forecast to see month-on-month price growth of 0.2% and year-on-year of 1.9%, both slightly weaker, while housing starts are expected to weaken to an annual rate of 1.033 million from 1.072 million last month. Building permits will decline to an annual rate of 1.07 million from 1.08 million.  
Market to watch: Dow JonesS&P 500, US dollar crosses

Wednesday

Japan trade balance (May), 0.50am: Japan’s economy is heavily dependent on exports, and the gap between imports and exports is expected to widen to Y1183 billion from Y811.7 billion.
Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY

Bank of England minutes (June), 9.30am: Given Mark Carney’s comments at the Mansion House, these minutes may be more interesting than previous iterations.
Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Federal Open Market Committee meeting (June), 7pm: There is no change expected in the US interest rate or in the rate of tapering, with another $10 billion cut from QE, bringing it to $35 billion.
Market to watch: Dow JonesS&P 500, US dollar crosses, other major global indices

Thursday

UK retail sales (May), 9.30am: Consumer spending in the UK is expected to weaken by 0.8% in May, from growth of 1.8% month-on-month in April. Year-on-year growth is forecast to drop to 4.8% from 7.7%.
Market to watch: GBP/USDEUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: After a 317K print last week, 315K is expected.  
Market to watch:  Dow JonesS&P 500, US dollar crosses

Philadelphia Federal Reserve index (June), 3pm: This business outlook index, which is usually quite volatile, is forecast to fall to 14 from 15.4 a month earlier.
Market to watch:  Dow JonesS&P 500, US dollar crosses

Friday

German PPI (May), 7am: The week ends relatively quietly with a reading on German producer prices. The month-on-month figure is expected to be 0%, up from -0.1% in April, while year-on-year prices are forecast to shrink by 0.7%, from a drop of 0.9% a month earlier.
Market to watch: EUR/USD,DAX

 

Company announcements

Tuesday

JD SportsWhitbread, Crest Nicholson, Ashtead

Wednesday

Berkeley GroupN Brown GroupFedEx

Thursday

Go-Ahead Group

Friday

Debenhams

 

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