EUR/USD: It’s all about the Fed
Technicals shelved ahead of fundamental event, traders hold opposing bias.
EUR/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It's a big fundamental day for the US dollar, and in turn for any USD pairs. As of late, the US dollar has been in relative retreat, underperforming yesterday as well against most of the FX majors. The focus for today's US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcement won't be on rates that are already at the lows, but on economic projections that'll be released for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began, expectations of a recovery, the interest rate dot plot, and Fed Chair Powell's forward guidance. EUR/USD's price breached yesterday's 1st Resistance level offering some before slightly retracing, and is currently resting near the highs, but technicals are irrelevant in the face of today's fundamental release that could easily cause key pivot points to break.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for EUR/USD
Going into the closely-watched event retail traders are holding a heavy short bias of 67%, while CoT (Commitment of Traders) speculators are heavy long 65% as per last Friday’s report.
EUR/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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