ASX 200 report:
23 July 2026

The Australia 200 trades37 points (0.43%) higher at 8860 at 3.40 pm AEST.

Jobs surprise fuels RBA rate hike expectations

The ASX 200 was electric out of the gate this morning, surging 103 points to a five-week high of 8926.3 before slamming into an electric fence in the shape of a red-hot June jobs report – which, combined with a 26% gain in oil prices this month, has brought the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) firmly into play for next month.

Employment in Australia rose by 76,800 in June, smashing the 15,000 gain that was expected. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4%, while the participation rate rose a healthy 0.3 percentage points to 67.0%, providing another indication of a strong labour market.

While monthly labour force figures are volatile and subject to revision, the robust June report follows last month's strong rebound and aligns with the RBA's view that labour market conditions remain resilient.

The RBA's key concern will be that this tightness feeds into wage growth and, more broadly, into inflation in an economy where price pressures are already uncomfortably high – especially with crude oil up an eye-popping 26.8% this month.

The Australian interest rate market is now pricing in around 9 basis points (bp) (36% chance) of a hike at the RBA's 11 August board meeting, with a cumulative 25 bp (100% chance) of hikes priced for the remainder of 2026. This indicates the RBA's cash rate will see out the year at 4.60%.

The hawkish RBA repricing – which comes ahead of next Wednesday's June quarter inflation numbers, expected to show that inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBA's 2% – 3% target band – saw the ASX 200 trim around 65 points of its early gains.

ASX 200 stocks

Energy sector

With a stream of reports flowing through the day that Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis had either struck Saudi-flagged tankers in the Red Sea or forced them to change course, energy stocks have remained supported.

• Karoon Energy rose 3.85% to $1.62
• AGL added 1.09% to $8.37 
• Beach Energy climbed 0.86% to $0.88
• Paladin Energy surged 12.81% to $10.29, extending its gains after the release of its fourth quarter (Q4) activities report yesterday exceeded expectations with strong fiscal year (FY) 2026 production at 4.82 million pounds, FY2027 guidance of 5.1 – 5.6 million pounds and said its cost of production will be US$44 – US$48 per pound, well below the current spot price of US$85.

Financials sector

• Generation Development, chaired by 1500m swimming legend Grant Hackett, soared 32.78% to $4.43 after it reported a 36% lift in funds under management to $46.4 billion from the previous corresponding period (pcp).

Materials sector

The materials sector was the strongest for a second day running, adding weight to the idea that its 15% pullback from the June highs into Monday's low is complete.

Copper miners have again been strong:

• Sandfire Resources jumped 3.77% to $19.37
• Capstone Copper lifted 2.02% to $13.65

The two-day rebound in gold, which has taken the price to $4130 per oz, helped ASX-listed goldies extend their gains.

• Evolution Mining surged 3.39% to $11.75
• Northern Star added 2.80% to $20.91
• Catalyst Metals gained 1.69% to $6.02.

Among the big iron ore miners:

• Mineral Resources jumped 2.93% to $55.18
• BHP added 1.39% to $60.59
• Fortescue lifted 1.43% to $18.83.

Technology sector

The information technology (IT) sector has been the weakest today after this morning's earnings reports released after the bell from tech giants Alphabet and Tesla disappointed.

• Alphabet reported earnings per share (EPS) of $9.11 vs $2.89 expected (the beat largely due to its large investment in Anthropic) and revenue of $119.8 billion vs $113.6 billion expected. Alphabet also raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure (capex) guidance to up to $205 billion. The stock fell around 2.90% in after-hours trading
• Tesla missed on EPS ($0.33 vs $0.44 expected) with revenue of $28.2 billion vs $25.2 billion expected, sending shares down 4.13% in after-hours trading to $358.55
• Wisetech Global fell 6.41% to $31.67
• Life360 lost 5.41% to $24.12
• Seek dropped 5.01% to $13.09.

ASX 200 technical analysis

The ASX 200 has been encapsulated within a broad 9000 – 8500 trading range for the past 15 weeks.

Within that – the 8800 - 8780 level, which includes the 200-day moving average (MA), has acted like a magnet for the past six weeks.

Looking ahead, we see scope for the ASX 200 to continue to trade sideways within this range possibly into the start of the August reporting season – while remaining open-minded as to what direction the break of the range will eventually come.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}