The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
6-10 May
Local
The South African Revenue Services (SARS) reported that in March 2024, South Africa registered a trade surplus of R7.3 billion, a decrease from the revised R13.3 billion the previous month. This reduction in surplus resulted from a significant 6.1% increase in imports, totaling R156.9 billion, with notable rises in mineral products, wood pulp & paper, and vegetable products. In contrast, export growth was more modest at 1.8%, amounting to R164.12 billion, driven primarily by gains in precious metals and stones, chemical products, and prepared foodstuffs. However, there was a decline in exports of vehicles, transport equipment, and vegetable products.
The new week is quiet on the economic front, with perhaps mining production and sales data scheduled for Thursday the most significant data point for traders to look out for.
International
The US Federal Reserve kept benchmark lending rates in the 5.25-5.50% range as expected. The pace of quantitative tightening was noted as slightly slower than markets had expected ($25bn vs est. $30bn), although much of the central banks commentary around rates and the economic outlook remained unchanged. The Fed reiterated that the economy ‘continued to expand at a solid pace', and while inflation ‘remains elevated’, highlighted that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals had moved toward better balance in the past year.
The new week will see attention shifting to the UK, with the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting and GDP announcements scheduled.
The Rand
The rand has strengthened against a weakening dollar, due to softer than expected US economic data. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, although dovish commentary from Jerome Powell saw the greenback depreciating against a broad basket of currencies. Worse than consensus US Non-Farm Jobs as well as Unemployment Rate data furthered the dollars decline.
The absence of load-shedding has also boosted domestic manufacturing, helping the rand strengthen against major currencies.
Despite softer-than-expected local data this last week, the USD/ZAR closed around its lowest level this year so far.
Commodities
A softer dollar has supported precious metal prices at the start of the new month.
Industrial metals copper and iron ore have seen a minor retacement in May after significant gains in the preceding month. The near term decline suggests some profit taking amidst low volume trade, as Chinese markets remain closed on the back of Labour Day holidays. Trade will resume on Monday the 6th of May.
Crude prices have also slipped at the start of the new month, as oil markets also trade thinly ahead of OPEC+ production announcements, and while ceasefire talks in the Middle East ease supply concerns.
Companies
Sasol Ltd: announced that Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and Executive Director, Mr Hanré Rossouw will step down on 31 October 2024.
Life Healthcare Group Holdings Ltd: in its operational update for the six-month period ended 31 March 2024, guided that group revenue increased between 7.0% to 8.0%, driven by robust activity growth in southern Africa and higher sales in Neuraceq doses.
DataTec Ltd (SA): in its FY24 trading update, guided EPS to have improved to a range of between 19.00 and 21.00 US cents, from 7.90 US cents in the prior year.
Gold Fields Ltd: announced the appointment of Mr. Alex Dall as Interim Chief Financial Officer (CFO), with effect from 1 May 2024, following the early retirement of CFO and Executive Director, Mr. Paul Andy Schmidt.
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd: in its operational update for the nine months ended 31 March 2024, guided that total gold production increased 10.0% and gold revenue increased 26.0%, while group all-in sustaining costs (AISC) declined 2.0% to R877,965kg.
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd: in its production update for the period ended 31 March 2024, guided that Group 6E production increased by 13.0% to 827,000 ounces.
Afrimat Limited: has completed the acquisition of certain assets and a right to mine select deposits at the Glenover mine, as well as the option to acquire 100% of the shares in Glenover Phosphate Proprietary Limited from the current shareholders.
Astral Foods Ltd: in its trading update for the six months ended 31 March 2024, expects HEPS to be between 874.00c and 891.00c, which compares with 163.00c in the previous year.
Raubex Group Ltd: in its further trading update for the year ending 29 February 2024, expects HEPS to be between 451.70c and 491.00c, as compared with 392.80c reported in the prior year.
Company announcements
Date |
Company |
Event Type |
6 May 2024 |
Redefine Properties Ltd |
Earnings Release |
6 May 2024 |
Labat Africa Ltd |
Earnings Release |
7 May 2024 |
Equites Property Fund Ltd |
Earnings Release |
8 May 2024 |
Transaction Capital Ltd |
Earnings Release |
8 May 2024 |
PSG Financial Services |
Ex Dividend |
8 May 2024 |
Netcare Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
8 May 2024 |
ACTIA Group SA |
Ex Dividend |
8 May 2024 |
Exxaro Resources Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
8 May 2024 |
Lesaka Technologies Inc |
Earnings Release |
9 May 2024 |
Sappi Ltd |
Earnings Release |
9 May 2024 |
Leatt Corp |
Earnings Release |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
8 May 2024 |
8:00am |
ZAR |
Foreign Exchange Reserves |
62.32b |
9 May 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
BOE Monetary Policy Report |
|
9 May 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
Monetary Policy Summary |
|
9 May 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes |
0-1-8 |
9 May 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
5.25% |
9 May 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|
9 May 2024 |
7:01pm |
USD |
30-y Bond Auction |
4.67|2.4 |
9 May 2024 |
1:00pm |
ZAR |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
-0.3% |
9 May 2024 |
1:00pm |
ZAR |
Manufacturing Production y/y |
4.1% |
10 May 2024 |
8:00am |
GBP |
GDP m/m |
0.1% |
10 May 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
77.2 |
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Enjoy flexible access to 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution
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Our platform and apps are intuitive and highly responsive, so trading opportunities are always within reach
Grow your confidence with an established provider
We’re a FTSE 250 company that’s been leading our industry for nearly 50 years, so our expertise is second to none