The Week Ahead
Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
Shaun Murison
Our weekly report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.
Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.
The Week Ahead
29 July - 2 August
Local
In June, South Africa's annual consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.1%, slightly down from 5.2% in May, maintaining a range of 5% to 6% over the past 10 months. Annual food and non-alcoholic beverage (NAB) inflation decreased to 4.6%, its lowest in 45 months. Specific categories, such as sugar, vegetables, and milk, saw reduced inflation, while others like hot beverages and bread experienced increases. Housing and utilities' annual inflation slowed to 5.5%, with minor quarterly rental increases. Transport inflation cooled to 5.5%, affected by lower vehicle and fuel prices. Fuel prices decreased by 4.6% month-over-month, resulting in a 7.6% annual rate.
International
The potential for a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US elections has led to early profit-taking on the Nasdaq100 and S&P500, driven by concerns over possible new US-China tariffs that could adversely affect major technology companies like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple. These companies are particularly susceptible due to their global supply chains and significant revenue from Chinese markets. Additionally, the recent earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet, which fell short of expectations, have contributed to short-term weaknesses in the Nasdaq100 and S&P500, as high valuations and market expectations mean any negative news results in substantial price corrections.
US Advance GDP data for the second quarter at 2.8% year on year came in well ahead of consensus which had predicted a reading of 2%. Core PCE inflation was reported in line with analyst expectations.
The new week is a busy one in terms of scheduled economic news, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Bank of England (BOE) and Federal Reserve all concluding monetary policy meetings. The Fed is expected to open the door for a September rate cut, while the BOE is expected to lower benchmark lending rates and the BOJ to tighten monetary policy. European inflation data and US employment data will also be a key focus for traders.
The Rand
Risk off trade has seen the rand on the back foot, weakening to its worst levels since the beginning of the month. Lower commodity prices on Chinese demand concerns has weighed on ZAR with key export prices (excluding gold) mostly lower. The domestic currency did however manage to trade off its worst levels on Friday as risk appetite started to improve once again.
Commodities
Copper prices are heading towards a third consecutive weekly decline amid concerns that physical buying in China may be short-lived due to a sluggish economy and lack of significant stimulus. Rising steel inventories and a slump in construction activity in China's property sector continue to suppress iron ore prices. Meanwhile, oil prices have fluctuated following hopes of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and higher-than-expected Russian production under OPEC+. Additionally, gold prices are starting to retreat from their all-time high levels on the suggestion of profit taking from elevated levels.
Companies
Anglo American PLC (SA): 1H24 results showed a diluted loss per share of $0.55, which compares with EPS of $1.03 recorded in the prior year’s comparative period.
Vodacom Group Ltd: in its trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2024, guided that group revenue increased 1.5% to R36.21bn.
Aeci Ltd: in its 1H24 trading update, expects EPS to be 59.0% to 64.0%, lower as compared with the prior year’s comparative period.
Cashbuild Limited: in its 4Q24 operational update, guided that group revenue increased 4.0% as compared with the prior year.
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd: 1H24 results showed diluted EPS fell 25.9% from the same period of the prior year to R22.23.
Anglo American Platinum Ltd: 1H24 results, showed diluted EPS declined 18.3% to 2,399.00c from the same period of the prior year.
Mr Price Group Limited: in its 1Q25 trading update, guided that group retail sales increased by 4.6% to R8.50 bn and comparable store sales rose 0.1%.
Company announcements
Date |
Company Name |
Event Type |
30 July 2024 |
Royal Bafokeng Platinum Ltd |
Earnings Release |
30 July 2024 |
Adcorp Holdings Ltd |
Annual Shareholders Meeting |
31 July 2024 |
AECI Ltd |
Earnings Release |
31 July 2024 |
Salungano Group Ltd |
Earnings Release |
31 July 2024 |
Invicta Holdings Ltd |
Ex Dividend |
31 July 2024 |
MIX Telematics Ltd |
Earnings Release |
1 August 2024 |
Arcelormittal South Africa Ltd |
Earnings Release |
1 August 2024 |
Mpact Ltd |
Earnings Release |
2 August 2024 |
Stefanutti Stocks Holdings Ltd |
Annual Shareholders Meeting |
Economic calendar
Date |
Time |
Region |
Event |
Previous |
30 July 2024 |
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
0.1% |
30 July 2024 |
8:00am |
ZAR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
4.72% |
30 July 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
100.4 |
30 July 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
JOLTS Job Openings |
8.14M |
31 July 2024 |
3:30am |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
49.5 |
31 July 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Policy Rate |
|
31 July 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Statement |
|
31 July 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Outlook Report |
|
31 July 2024 |
Tentative |
JPY |
BOJ Press Conference |
|
31 July 2024 |
11:00am |
EUR |
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.9% |
31 July 2024 |
11:00am |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.5% |
31 July 2024 |
2:00pm |
ZAR |
Balance of Trade |
R20.08B |
31 July 2024 |
2:15pm |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
150K |
31 July 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Employment Cost Index q/q |
1.2% |
31 July 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-2.1% |
31 July 2024 |
8:00pm |
USD |
Federal Funds Rate |
5.50% |
31 July 2024 |
8:00pm |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
31 July 2024 |
8:30pm |
USD |
FOMC Press Conference |
|
1 August 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
BOE Monetary Policy Report |
|
1 August 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
Monetary Policy Summary |
|
1 August 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes |
0-2-7 |
1 August 2024 |
1:00pm |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
5.25% |
1 August 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|
1 August 2024 |
4:00pm |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
48.5 |
2 August 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.3% |
2 August 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
206K |
2 August 2024 |
2:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
4.1% |
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