The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead

28 April - 2 May

The Rand

The rand has remained relatively stable this week, fluctuating slightly but supported by easing political tensions, improved tariff conditions, and steady monetary policy expectations. However, it remains sensitive to both domestic political developments and global economic factors.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep interest rates steady in the near term, with the next MPC meeting scheduled for the new week. The SARB’s cautious stance aligns with global monetary policy trends, including the US Federal Reserve’s hold on rate hikes and delayed rate cuts. This environment contributes to the rand’s cautious trading range. The lower than expected inflation print this last week does however present an outside possibility of a 25 basis point cut.

Commodities

Oil prices rallied this week as prices were supported by U.S. sanctions on Iran tightening global supply, though potential OPEC+ production increases created volatility. Kazakhstan's indication it will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas suggests possible discord within the group. Easing U.S.-China trade tensions improved market sentiment, while the Keystone Pipeline restart eased Canadian heavy crude bottlenecks.

Gold experienced volatility, dropping 3% before rebounding 1% to approximately $3,318 per ounce. President Trump's softer stance on trade and Fed policy reduced gold's safe-haven appeal. Despite short-term fluctuations, major banks maintain bullish forecasts, projecting prices of $3,700-$4,500 by late 2025 or early 2026.

Copper reached a two-week high midweek due to dollar weakness before retreating as the dollar strengthened on improving global trade relations. Market uncertainty persists regarding copper's potential inclusion in future U.S. tariffs.

Companies

Anglo American PLC: in its 1Q25 production update showed a mixed performance with copper and iron ore output increasing while platinum, coal, manganese and diamond output decreased.

Anglo American Platinum Limited: in its 1Q25 production update, guided that total Platinum Group Metal (PGM) production declined by 17% against the prior period. Own-managed mines PGM production decreased by 8% to 462,000 ounces primarily due to the heavy rains in February that caused widespread flooding that impacted Tumela mine at Amandelbult. Refined PGMs production decreased by 30.0%. Additionally, PGMs sales volumes decreased by 30.0%, in line with lower refined production. However, total sales volumes advanced by 58.0%.

Kumba Iron Ore Limited: in its 1Q25 production and sales update, guided that total iron ore production decreased by 3.0%, largely due to a 9% decrease in Sishen’s production, following a proactive drawdown of high mine stockpiles. Meanwhile, iron ore sales advanced by 6.0%, on the back of improved rail performance.

Cashbuild Limited: in its 3Q25 operational update, guided that group revenue increased by 5.0% as compared with the prior year.

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited: FY25 results, showed that net interest income rose to R20.19bn from R16.46bn posted in the previous year. Diluted EPS soared 30.0% to R11.88 from the prior year.

Quilter Plc: in its 1Q25 trading update, guided that group Assets under Management and Administration (AuMA) as at March 2025 stood at GBP119.60bn. Core net inflows advanced 181.0% to GBP2,276.00m from the previous year. Additionally, annualised gross sales per Quilter Adviser stood at GBP3.40m.

Sasol Limited: in its 3Q25 production and sales update, guided that saleable production in mining declined 5.0%, as compared with the prior quarter. Sales revenue from chemicals business in Africa increased by 8.0% as compared to the prior quarter, driven by higher sales volume and higher average basket price.