Will the FTSE 100 spike after a weekend of stagnation for UK share prices?

The FTSE 100 share price was down on July 3, but two days of consumer spending could cause a spike on Monday, suggesting weekend trades may prove profitable.

There seems to be little in the way of positives for the FTSE 100 heading into what could be a quiet weekend. Although parts of the British economy are set to kick back into life on 4 July, the government seems to be adopting a wait-and-see strategy.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced on Friday that his summer statement won’t include any big tax cuts. However, with little else in the way of news, traders could be set to mimic Sunak’s approach.

The lack of political action has hurt the FTSE 100 share price. The market opened at 6,240.36 on 3 July but quickly went into a downward spiral. By lunchtime, the index had dropped to 6,151.90 before making a slight recovery to 6,166.20 just after 14:40 (BST).

Looking towards the weekend UK 100 markets on IG, no significant changes are predicted. Friday’s closing price (6,144.82) suggests Sunak’s tax position has spooked investors. However, the overall market sentiment seems to suggest no one is willing to commit too heavily one way or the other until he makes his summer budget speech.

Lack of major events suggest weekend of relative stagnation

Sunak’s decision to tread water for at least the next two days is compounded by a US public holiday. With businesses and trading suspended during the 4 July holiday period, little is likely to change on either side of the Atlantic over the weekend. Therefore, the downward trend observed on 3 July is unlikely to shift dramatically when markets reopen on Monday. A weekend plateau should carry through to the early part of next week.

However, what could be interesting to track before the FTSE 100 reopens on 6 July is the leisure and retail sectors. With the two-metre social distancing rule effectively cut in half and various parts of both sectors reopening, high-street activity should increase over the weekend. If the post-lockdown revelry translates into a sales spike, it could be a good time to invest in the FTSE 100.

By taking advantage of the weekend trading options at IG, traders can use the wait-and-see strategy to get ahead of the market on Monday. In essence, if retail, restaurant and hospitality giants like Next and the Compass Group enjoy a profitable weekend, it could give the FTSE 100 share price a boost. Conversely, if talk of local lockdowns deters consumers from heading out, this week’s FTSE 100 price spiral will continue.

Watch for FTSE 100 share price to spike if consumers spend

By this measure, next week’s trading conditions won’t be determined by politicians or big businesses but consumers. A sense of freedom should give the economy a boost, even if it’s nothing more than a fleeting spike. By the close of play on 4 July, it will be clear if this is the case or not. If so, investing in FTSE 100 shares over the weekend could be a positive move.

Sunak has already said he’ll wait and see how things play out. A return to something like normality could prompt a more favourable budget. This, combined with a renewed optimism among businesses and consumers, could see the recent losses turn to gains. At worst, the markets will remain flat this weekend. However, if people take the streets in their droves, don’t be surprised if the FTSE 100 share price spikes on Monday.

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