Key events to watch in the week ahead: 28 April – 4 May 2025

This week’s overview

Wall Street looks set to wrap up the week on a strong note, with major indices posting gains as investor sentiment improved. Easing concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence and trade tensions—particularly hopes for a potential rollback in China tariffs—helped lift risk appetite. Corporate earnings seem to display some resilience amid trade uncertainties as well, particularly with results from Alphabet offering relief that profit margins are holding up better than feared.

Heading into the new week, here are five key events to watch.

US Q1 earnings season: Visa, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon

Earnings season will shift into higher gear next week, with key reports due from several of the Magnificent Seven stocks, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. So far, Alphabet and Tesla have posted share price gains following their results, as investors closely monitor guidance on tariff risks and the broader economic outlook.

30 April 2025 (Wednesday, 9.30am SGT): Australia’s consumer price index (CPI)

Headline inflation rose just 0.2% in Q4 2024, below expectations, bringing the annual rate down to 2.4%—its lowest since mid-2020. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s preferred trimmed mean measure also slowed, rising 0.5% in the quarter and lowering the annual rate to 3.2%, marking the eighth straight quarter of moderation. Monthly CPI data for February showed further softening, with headline inflation at 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) and trimmed mean at 2.7%.

At its April meeting, the RBA kept rates steady at 4.1%, noting that while underlying inflation is easing as expected, it needs confidence that this trend will persist. It also flagged concerns over US tariffs and refrained from pushing back on market expectations for further easing. With Q1 2025 inflation expected to remain soft, we anticipate 25 basis point (bp) rate cuts in both May and July.

30 April 2025 (Wednesday, 8.30pm/10pm SGT): US advance gross domestic product (GDP), core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index

The US economy grew at a stronger-than-expected 2.4% annualised pace in Q4 2024, bolstered by upward revisions to net exports, government spending, and business investment. For Q1 2025, growth is expected to slow significantly to 0.4% due to front-loading of goods ahead of US tariffs, alongside the hit to consumer and business confidence on rising trade uncertainties. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates a 2.5% contraction, suggesting downside risks. The Q1 print will be closely watched as the first major datapoint on how tariffs may be shaping broader recession risks.

Also due on the same day is the PCE inflation report, where core PCE is expected to ease to 0.1% month-on-month from 0.4% previously. A softer print may reinforce the Fed’s case to cut rates in response to weaker growth, but it may also underscore a more fragile consumer backdrop. Together, the GDP and inflation data could prove pivotal in shaping near-term Fed expectations and market pricing.

1 May 2025 (Thursday, no set time): Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s interest rate decision

The BoJ is widely expected to keep rates on hold at its upcoming policy meeting, following its historic rate hike to 0.50% in January and a pause in March. Markets are fully priced for no change this week, but attention will turn to the BoJ’s updated economic projections and guidance. While markets still see room for another 25 bp hike in the second half of this year, downside risks to growth—particularly from global trade tensions and lack of progress in US-Japan talks—argue for caution in the near term.

Japan’s core-core inflation rose to 2.9% YoY in March—its highest in a year—highlighting persistent underlying price pressures. Yet, wage dynamics remain a key constraint to policy normalisation. Although nominal wages rose 3.1% in February, inflation-adjusted real wages continued to decline, weighing on household consumption. Until real wage growth turns positive, the BoJ may prefer to stay on the sidelines and avoid tightening prematurely, especially in a fragile external environment.

2 May 2025 (Friday, 8.30pm SGT): US non-farm payrolls

March’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report was mixed, with 228,000 jobs added—well above expectations and February’s downwardly revised 117,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, slightly above forecasts, due partly to a higher participation rate. The jobless rate has hovered between 4.0% and 4.2% for nearly a year, aligning with Fed Chair Powell’s recent remarks that the labour market remains "broadly in balance."

Powell described the economy as "solid" despite growing uncertainty and downside risks. Looking ahead, April’s payrolls are expected to rise by 175,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Markets continue to price in 80 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the first move fully expected in July.