Week commencing 24 November 2025

Nasdaq reverses gains as ASX 200 posts fourth weekly loss

United States (US) equity indices are on track to finish lower this week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 leading the decline after reversing sharply and erasing the brief relief rally triggered by NVIDIA's earnings.

The sell-off has been driven by several pressures: mixed September employment data failed to revive hopes of a December Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, NVIDIA's results did not ease concerns about stretched technology valuations, crypto assets extended their steep slide and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) sold off again.

Locally, the Australia 200 (ASX 200) is down 2.25% this week and is poised for a fourth straight weekly loss, bringing its November decline to 4.91% and putting it on track for the worst month since September 2022. Heavyweight financials have led the rout, falling 7.62% this month, while the Australia 200 information technology sector has dropped more than 16% in November.

The week that was: highlights

• In the US, the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were hawkish and further push back expectations for a December rate cut
• September non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000, well above the consensus forecast of 50,000. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021
• In the United Kingdom (UK), headline inflation stayed at 3.6% in October, while the core measure eased to 3.4% from 3.5% prior
• In Japan, preliminary third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) annualised shrank 1.8%, reversing from a gain of 2.3% in Q2
• Japanese headline inflation rose to 3% year-on-year (YoY) from 2.9% prior, while the core measure also rose to 3% from 2.9% prior
• In Australia (AU), the wage price index rose by 3.4% in Q3 2025
• Crude oil fell 2.46% to US$58.60
• Gold is trading flat this week at US$4082
• Bitcoin fell 7.27% to US$87325
• Wall Street’s gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), surged to 26.41 from 19.82 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU – Inflation (October): Wednesday, 26 November at 8.30am SGT
• NZ – Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision: Wednesday, 26 November at 9.00am SGT

China & Japan

• CN – National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs): Sunday, 30 November at 9.30pm SGT

United States

• US – Producer price index (PPI): Tuesday, 25 November at 9.30pm SGT
• US – Retail sales: Tuesday, 25 November at 9.30pm SGT
• US – Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence: Tuesday, 25 November at 11.00pm SGT
• US – Durable goods orders: Wednesday, 26 November at 9.30pm SGT
• US – second quarter (Q2) GDP second estimate: Wednesday, 26 November at 9.30pm SGT
• US – Initial jobless claims: Wednesday, 26 November at 9.30pm SGT

Europe & United Kingdom

• UK – Autumn Budget: Wednesday, 26 November at TBC
• UK – Nationwide house prices: Friday, 28 November at 3.00pm SGT

Key events for the week ahead

AU: October inflation

Date: Wednesday, 26 November at 8.30am SGT

The first complete monthly consumer price index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, 26 November, marking the transition from the quarterly CPI and the partial monthly CPI indicator to the new full monthly CPI as Australia’s headline inflation measure.

From this release onward, the monthly CPI indicator will no longer be produced. The complete monthly CPI provides more comprehensive data, bringing Australia in line with all other G20 economies.

There is debate about whether next week’s release should be compared with quarterly CPI or the old monthly indicator. While neither comparison is perfect, the Q3 results provide the clearest benchmark.

In Q3 2025, consumer price inflation came in hotter than expected. Headline CPI rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), lifting the annual rate to 3.2% YoY from 2.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean, rose 1.0% quarter on quarter, lifting the annual rate to 3.0% YoY from 2.7%, the first increase since December 2022.

Following this, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 3.60% at its November Board meeting. The Bank noted that although inflation has fallen substantially from its 2022 peak, recent increases were partly due to the removal of electricity rebates in several states.

Some of the upward pressure is considered temporary, although revised RBA forecasts show trimmed mean inflation rising to 3.2% in the first half of 2026 before easing to 2.7% by December 2026.

The preliminary expectation is for headline CPI to rise to 3.4%. No trimmed mean forecast is available yet.

The Australian interest rate market is pricing in 2 basis point (bp) of easing for December, with around 14bp of cuts expected by May 2026.

AU all groups CPI and trimmed mean chart 

NZ: RBNZ interest rate decision

Date: Wednesday, 26 November at 9.00am SGT

At its October meeting, the RBNZ surprised markets by cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 bp to 2.50%, a larger move than the expected 25 bp.

This brought total easing in the current cycle to 300 bp from the peak of 5.50%. The cut was unanimous, with the statement noting:

‘The Committee remains open to further reductions in the OCR as required for inflation to settle sustainably near the 2 percent target mid-point in the medium term.’

The use of ‘reductions’ (plural) ssignalled an ongoing easing bias. The RBNZ also downgraded its description of economic activity from ‘growth has stalled’ to ‘economic activity is weak’ -  a clear softening in tone.

Next week’s meeting includes a new OCR track (the RBNZ’s projected policy path), which is likely to be revised lower for two main reasons:

1. The OCR track is not updated at every OCR decision meeting. It's included only in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (MPS), which occur four times a year (typically February, May, August, and November). The August track bottomed at 2.55%. The October cut pushed the actual OCR below that level to 2.50%, so the starting point of the new track must be lower.
2. The explicit reference to 'further reductions' in October strongly suggests the Committee wants to keep the door open to additional easing into 2026. As such, the new track is expected to show a terminal rate around 2.15%. This would align closely with current market pricing. 

This indicates the Committee may continue easing into 2026.

Markets expect the new OCR track to show a terminal rate around 2.15%.

The New Zealand interest rate market is fully priced for a 25 bp cut next week, which would take the OCR to 2.25%. Markets assign a 50% probability of another 25 bp cut in February, which would take the terminal rate to 2.00%.

RBNZ official cash rate chart

US: CB consumer confidence

Date: Tuesday, 25 November at 11.00pm SGT

ThecConsumer confidence index fell 1.0 point to 94.6 from a revised 95.6, marking its third straight monthly decline and the lowest reading since April 2025.

The present situation index rose 1.8 points to 129.3, while the expectations index fell 2.9 points to 71.5, well below the 80-level recession threshold. Rising recession concerns, the government shutdown and tariff uncertainty all weighed on sentiment.

For November, a modest rebound to around 96.0 – 97.0 is expected.

Market pricing implies about a 30% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate cut in December, which appears low given the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in the delayed September non-farm payrolls report.

CB consumer confidence chart

US: Q3 earnings season

The US Q3 2025 earnings season is entering its final stages, with results due next week from Zoom, Dell, HP and Deere & Co.