Australia 200 afternoon report: 15 May 2025

The Australia 200 trades 19 points (0.24%) higher at 8298 as of 2.15pm (AEST).

The Australia 200 is poised for a seventh consecutive day of gains following a 'goldilocks' labour force report for April. The data showed the labour market remains in good shape without being too tight to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates next week.

Job market strength signals economic resilience

The Australian economy added 89,000 jobs in April, almost four times the 25,000 gain the market had expected. However, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% due to increased supply as the participation rate surged to 67.1% from 66.8% prior.

Notably, the Australian unemployment rate has remained remarkably stable, within a 3.9% - 4.1% range for the past 17 months.

Today's jobs report once again highlights the resilience of the Australian labour market, which has contributed to the RBA lowering its unemployment forecast for the end of 2025 to 4.2% from 4.5%.

Inflation data supports June rate cut expectations

Nevertheless, with first quarter (Q1) 2025's trimmed mean inflation at 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). This marks a return to the RBA's 2% - 3% target range for the first time since fourth quarter (Q4) 2021.

Combined with downside risks to global growth from elevated tariffs,, we continue to expect the RBA will reduce rates by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.85% at its meeting next week.

Australia 200 stocks

Consumer-facing stocks

Consumer-facing and bank stocks have gained, supported by expectations of an RBA rate cut next week.

• Myer surged 3.27% to $0.78
• Aristocrat Leisure added 2.25% to $63.50
• Adairs added 1.52% to $2.67

Banking sector

• Macquarie added 1.2% to $214.33
• ANZ rose 1.09% to $28.83
• NAB gained 1.05% to $36.48
• Westpac climbed 0.96% to $31.56
• CBA edged 0.6% higher to $168.50

Technology sector

The Australia 200 information technology (IT) sector is set for its 14th day of gains in the past 16 sessions as United States (US) tech stocks regain their cult-like status.

• DroneShield lifted 4.28% to $1.34
• Xero added 4.24% to $181.16
• Appen gained 2.13% to $1.20
• Life360, which has surged an impressive 36% this month following its earnings report earlier this week, added another 0.5% to $29.90

Energy sector

Crude oil prices have fallen 2.17% today to $61.78 on reports that Iran is willing to make concessions around its nuclear program in return for the US easing sanctions. Nonetheless, Australia 200 energy stocks have again been well supported.

• AGL Energy rose 0.63% to $10.43
• Santos added 0.62% to $6.47
• Beach Energy gained 0.57% to $1.33
• Woodside Energy slipped 0.2% lower to $22.27

Gold stocks

Gold stocks fell as the price of bullion fell 2.23% overnight to $3177, undercut by a fifth day of gains in US yields and easing trade tensions.

• Resolute Mining dropped 5.13% to $0.55
• Newmont slipped 4% to $74.72
• Perseus Mining lost 1.81% to $3.26

Australia 200 technical analysis

From its mid-February record high of 8615, the Australia 200 fell 16.78% to its early April 7169 low, a move which had more corrective than impulsive characteristics.

The index has rebounded from the April low to within 3.5% of its record high. Despite recent developments on the trade front, our preferred scenario remains for a period of consolidation and range trading lasting several weeks.

This will likely be in a higher range of 8400 - 7950, rather than what we suggested at the end of last month (8200 - 7730).

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 15 May 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}