The trade: US Tech 100, Australia 200 near highs on trade hopes

(AI video summary)

This video was created on 4 June for IG audiences by ausbiz.

US Tech 100 lifted by chipmakers, tests resistance

Chipmakers extended their leadership in the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100), helping propel the index through recent resistance levels. The current price structure aligns with an Elliott Wave framework, suggesting the market may be in the third wave of a broader impulse higher.

With markets settling into equilibrium following the Liberation Day tariff announcements, attention now shifts to an imminent trade negotiation deadline. The United States (US) government has requested final offers from partner countries by Wednesday, amid renewed friction over alleged breaches in prior agreements.

The US Tech 100 appears poised to challenge its previous record high. Whether this test precedes or follows a short-term pullback remains uncertain, but the broader trend points to continued strength.

Australia 200 holds firm, eyes all-time high

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) has shown notable resilience, holding above 8400 despite softer economic signals. This base has supported a renewed push higher, with the index now trading above 8500 and closing in on its record of 8615.

From a technical perspective, a retest of the high seems increasingly likely. However, the potential for a double top or failed breakout cannot be ruled out. Market behaviour at the resistance level will determine the next directional move.

Australian GDP data in focus

Australia’s quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) release is expected to show a 0.4% increase, with annual growth forecast at 1.4%. However, weaker-than-expected partial indicators have introduced downside risk. A significantly weaker result could place the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2.1% full-year growth projection in doubt.

The outcome may also influence AUD/USD, which has rebounded from April lows and now consolidates in a range between 0.6350 - 0.6540. The 200-day moving average (MA) at 0.6450 has provided support, and the structure suggests further upside towards 0.6750, though near-term consolidation is likely.

Crude oil tests range highs as tensions rise

Crude oil has moved to a two-week high, driven by renewed geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Iranian uranium stockpiles have increased 50% over three months, intensifying speculation about a potential escalation. Reports suggest Israel may revisit plans to target Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Technically, crude oil remains in a well-defined range between $55 - $65. A sustained break above the upper bound could trigger a rally towards the 200-day MA at approximately $67.50.

Gold maintains bullish outlook

Gold continues to show strength, rebounding from a low of $3120 and breaking the downtrend from the $3500 high. The correction has taken on a classic retracement structure, and the breakout suggests a low is in place.

With support from inflation hedging demand, the metal is positioned to challenge $3435 and the $3500 peak. A clear break could open the path to $3700, a level flagged by several institutional analysts as a longer-term target.

Bitcoin consolidates after breakout reversal

Bitcoin recently surged above $72,000 before retreating back into its prior range. While the asset has shown remarkable stability, overbought technical conditions have led to a neutral bias.

Bitcoin now appears to be in a period of digestion, awaiting the next macro or technical catalyst to define direction.

Macro outlook: Waiting for the next move

Markets remain in a 'holding' pattern as key events approach. The US administration is pushing to secure major trade and budget agreements ahead of the 9 July deadline. Internal divisions have emerged, with high-profile figures such as Elon Musk publicly criticising the latest budget proposal.

For now, markets appear balanced. Whether risk assets break to new highs or revert depends on the outcome of upcoming data and political developments.