Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Gold’s bounce appears to be running out of steam, but oil prices have edged higher so far today.

Oil barrels
Source: Bloomberg

Gold supported by $1309

The drop below $1320 for gold sends a clear message that this upward rally has run out of steam. A rolling over in various momentum indicators (stochastics, MACD) suggests that a pullback is developing.

I would look towards $1309 as the first area of support, then onwards to the 100-day moving average at $1304.80. Ultimately, the failure to hold above $1320 sets the tone for the week, with a medium-term target being $1280 should $1300 be broken.

Only a close back above $1320 reignites the upside scenario, and a potential move to $1330.

Silver unlikely to make more gains

Silver is dropping back below $21 at the time of writing, with potentially significant developments in the offing.

It could just be a working off of the overbought condition for the commodity, but the lack of upward progress following the break of $21 last week does not send a signal that more gains are on the way.

Downside trades would be aiming for $20.50, around the 20-DMA, and thence towards $20.34, the 200-DMA. A move through $21 again on the upside would need a close above $21.20 to make the case for a move in the direction of $21.50.

Brent makes modest gains

The run lower for Brent seems to be coming to a halt, with modest gains above the 50-DMA this morning.

The relative strength index has begun to rise slightly, ending the downward progression that has prevailed, with a move above the 50 mid-point for this indicator signaling a more bullish outlook.

If the 50-DMA continues to hold then we would wait for other indicators such as stochastics to turn higher, but such an occurrence would signal the start of a slow grind back towards $115.

US light crude RSI moving higher

The dip has yet to be fully bought in this market but this may eventually come to pass this week, especially if the $104 level is recovered.

As with Brent, the RSI is beginning to move higher, and a close above the 20-DMA would be the signal many are waiting for. Ultimately, it does not yet pay to argue with this uptrend, and a move back to the June highs is probably still on the cards.

Denne informasjonen er utarbeidet av IG, forretningsnavnet til IG Markets Limited. I tillegg til disclaimeren nedenfor, inneholder ikke denne siden oversikt over kurser, eller tilbud om, eller oppfordring til, en transaksjon i noe finansielt instrument. IG påtar seg intet ansvar for handlinger basert på disse kommentarene og for eventuelle konsekvenser som et resultat av dette. Ingen garanti gis for nøyaktigheten eller fullstendigheten av denne informasjonen. Personer som handler ut i fra denne informasjonen gjør det på egen risiko. Forskning gitt her tar ikke hensyn til spesifikke investeringsmål, finansiell situasjon og behov som angår den enkelte person som mottar dette. Denne informasjonen er ikke utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser, så derfor er denne informasjonen ansett å være markedsføringsmateriale. Selv om vi ikke er hindret i å handle i forkant av våre anbefalinger, ønsker vi ikke å dra nytte av dem før de blir levert til våre kunder. Se fullstendig disclaimer og kvartalsvis oppsummering.