Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

Crude’s bounce is likely to be sold into following its sharp selloff, while precious metals continue to chop with little directional bias.

An oil pump
Source: Bloomberg

Gold lacking direction

Gold has become increasingly difficult to predict over the past week, with the $1178 support level being passed through on a number of occasions. It is worth bearing in mind that the price has not always respected $1178 to the point, and thus it is worth expanding the support zone to incorporate historical and recent support between $1175 and $1178.

Nevertheless, last week’s move through this support zone shows a possible weakness in gold and I could see another move lower in accordance with this. I am not confident enough in the direction we are heading to trade this, and as such will await a bullish move above $1192 or bearish move below $1172.

Silver continues to trace trendline following selloff

Silver remains within a consolidation phase at the apex of the symmetrical triangle we have been watching in recent months. Doji and spinning top candles have been a regular occurrence in recent weeks to reflect the indecision in the markets, and if pushed I would say it is probably more likely that we will break lower than push higher owing to the inability to catch a bid from these levels.

This does seem, on the face of it, like a period of consolidation, and given we are following a sharp selloff price action alone would give a bearish tone. Nevertheless, I await a breakout to gain confidence of the direction in the same manner as gold.

A close above $16.30 would bring a bullish outlook and call for $16.80 and $17.20. Meanwhile, a close below $15.85 would likely bring a move towards $15.60 and $15.29.

Brent continues to bounce from trendline support

Brent has been consolidating over the past 24 hours, following a bounce from the descending trendline dating back to early May. However, this looks like it will be a relatively short-term bounce and I expect the sellers to come back into play soon for a move towards $63.21. This would be invalidated by a move above $64.40.

WTI bounce looks like continuation pattern and points to losses

The move higher we are seeing this week looks a lot like a flag pattern, albeit without a highly volatile entry. Given the reversal lower from the triangle resistance zone, I expect to see selling pressure come back into play soon, and thus await a break below the support trendline of this short-term channel to instigate a move back to $58.80and $57.85.

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