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No doubt, we are seeing a day which will be driven almost entirely by economic data and their impact upon monetary policy adjustments.
US economics will certainly provide a good steer to markets heading towards Friday’s jobs report, with Janet Yellen laying the ground for expectations going forward. Over the next two days, Ms Yellen will speak twice, and with markets currently believing that a hike is inevitable in the event of a respectable jobs report, it will be crucial to see if she plays into such sentiment.
Overnight Australian GDP helped the week’s standout FX performer, with the economy growing better than most expected despite the ongoing Chinese slowdown and commodity crash. However, the worry is that domestic consumption continues to lag, and instead it was the resurgence of exports which helped drive growth.
UK construction expansion fell to a seven-month low in November, with the PMI reading falling to 55.3. While UK construction remains in rude health, given the continuous expansion seen over the past two years, today’s number was a dagger in the heart of GBP/USD which has seen hopes of a recovery dashed once more despite signs of a resurgence earlier this week.
Eurozone CPI failed to gain traction for yet another month, just one day ahead of the European Central Bank’s crucial monetary policy decision. With both core and headline inflation undershooting expectations, it is clear that the eurozone is nowhere near escaping the disinflation trap that it has been caught in over recent years. Despite positive revisions to both October readings the eurozone inflation picture is not improving, and this provides Mario Draghi with further basis for easing when he takes the stand tomorrow.
Ahead of the open we expect the Dow Jones to start two points higher, at 17,890.