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Victoria Scholar talks with chief market analyst, Chris Beauchamp, about the outlook for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report. Wednesday’s private sector ADP report was well in excess of expectations, putting investors on notice for a potentially strong number when non-farms are published. However, with expectations already raised it will need to be a solid number for the dollar in order to see strong buying. In addition, wage numbers still need to move higher at a much faster pace, although this of course brings with it inflation concerns.
In addition, a stronger NFP report will increase the possibility of a faster pace of tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did raise rates at its last meeting, the relatively cautious wording of the statement did little for the dollar. But in the wake of fresh comments about interest rates still being below the neutral level, a healthy beat on NFPs tomorrow only boosts the chances of more hawkish Fed policy.