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Friday's jobs report proved that August remains a sticking point for US employment, with the payrolls, earnings and unemployment rate all falling short of expectations. The upshot of this appears to be that markets expect to see a more patient and thus dovish Federal Reserve, with the likeliness of a September hike now falling to 36%. With that in mind, it is worthwhile understanding where this leaves dollar expectations and where we think the dollar will be going in the short and longer term.
The weekly dollar index chart highlights the fact that we have been caught within a circa 900-point range since the turn of 2015. Price is currently within an ascending phase and this, accompanied by the bullish entry, provides us with a clear bullish bias when looking into shorter term price action. This week has seen the dollar take a hit, off the back of Friday’s weak US jobs report, yet it is clear that we are in the ascendancy following a pullback to the 76.4% retracement last month.