Market Navigator:  Job data and ECB forum to shape rate path – week of 29 Jun 2026

Last week's recap: Hormuz reopens, US inflation persists and RBA hike odds fade

• Oil retreats as Hormuz partially reopens: Brent crude fell to $72 per barrel after the Geneva peace agreement and partial resumption of Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic — recovering to around two-thirds of normal levels — drove prices back towards pre-war levels. Detailed terms remain under negotiation, and a vessel attack on Thursday added near-term uncertainty.
• Australia data cools hike expectations: Headline consumer price index (CPI) eased to 4.0% year-on-year (YoY) in May from 4.2% in April, though trimmed mean inflation ticked up to 3.6%. Employment rebounded with 40,300 jobs added and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%. The data cut the probability of a further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike this year to approximately 33%, pushing AUD/USD to a three-month low near 0.6873.
• US PCE climbs to highest since October 2023: Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) — the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge — rose 3.4% YoY in May. This is the highest since October 2023. Monthly core PCE matched the 0.3% consensus while headline came in at 0.4%, slightly below forecast. Markets expect inflation to moderate as energy prices ease.
• US economy stays resilient: Real personal spending rose 0.3% in May after April's flat reading, with services outpacing goods. First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised up to 2.1% annualised, above consensus, providing a solid buffer against any second-quarter drag from the Middle East conflict.

Markets in focus: Nasdaq 100 retreat on sector rotation, Hang Seng extends losing streak and gold struggles to hold $4,000

US Tech slips as half-year rebalancing drives sector rotation

The S&P 500 fell 2.0% last week while the Nasdaq 100 declined 4.2%, as end-of-half rebalancing drove a rotation out of rallied technology names and into cyclicals and defensives — lifting the Dow Jones 0.6% against the broader market's decline.

Healthcare was the standout sector, generating a market-cap weighted return of 8.2% within the S&P 500. Bio-Techne led constituent gains, surging 22.5% after Merck KGaA announced a $11.3 billion all-cash takeover bid at a 36% premium to its one-month volume weighted average price. On the downside, ON Semiconductor plunged 25.5% after agreeing to acquire human interface chip specialist Synaptics in a $7 billion all-stock deal that the market received poorly.

Mega-cap technology stocks faced additional pressure from a confluence of AI-related concerns. Apple fell 4.8% after raising prices across its Mac and iPad lines, citing an unprecedented memory chip shortage. The fact that the world's most powerful consumer electronics buyer has been compelled to pass rising input costs on to customers raises serious questions about demand elasticity. If consumer demand softens in response, the volumes underpinning record chip margins look increasingly fragile — feeding back into earnings growth scepticism.

Separately, reports that OpenAI is weighing a delay of its initial public offering (IPO) to 2027 injected a further reality check on AI sector valuations — a setback for strategic investors including Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon, and a signal that retail enthusiasm for the AI trade is cooling amid recent technology stock volatility.

From a technical perspective, the US Tech 100 index is tracing out a potential double top pattern — failing to surpass the 30,759 peak on a second attempt at 30,653 — and has since broken below the 20-day moving average (MA), signalling deteriorating momentum. A moving average convergence divergence (MACD) bearish crossover reinforces the bearish bias. A decisive break below the 28,186 neckline would confirm the double top pattern, implying a measured move towards the 200-day MA at 26,240. On the upside, a recovery above the 20-day MA at 29,644 is required before any renewed challenge of the highs.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Hang Seng Index falls for seventh consecutive week, IPO market defies broader weakness

The Hang Seng Index fell 5.2% last week — its worst weekly decline since the period following Liberation Day in April 2025 — extending its losing streak to seven consecutive weeks. Broad-based selling across Asian equity markets weighed on sentiment, while Hong Kong's trade deficit widened to HK$44.2 billion in May as import growth of 42.0% outpaced export growth of 40.8%.

Despite the broader weakness, Hong Kong's initial public offering (IPO) market remained buoyant, with 11 companies listing during the week and raising a combined HK$25.0 billion ($3.2 billion). Standout debutants included Lingyi iTech, an Apple, Huawei and Samsung precision components supplier that raised $1.1 billion, and Keytop Parking, a smart parking service provider that surged 204% on debut.

Among Hang Seng Index constituents, gold-related names bore the brunt of the precious metals sell-off, with Laopu Gold and Zijin Mining falling 19.1% and 14.4% respectively. WuXi AppTec (+13.0%) and WuXi Biologics (+7.2%) led a broad rally in contract research organisation (CRO) and innovative drug stocks, driven by a bullish Citi research report citing improving fundamentals and under-appreciated valuations. Positive coverage of Chinese contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO) companies at the BIO 2026 conference in San Diego provided additional sector support.

The Hang Seng Index is currently testing support from a local low established in June 2025 at 22,668. Failure to hold this level would open the door to the next support zone at 21,800 – 22,000. Oversold signals from the relative strength index (RSI) may prompt a technical rebound, but any recovery attempt will encounter resistance from the 20-day MA near 24,450.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index daily price chart

Gold erases seven months of gains as hawkish rate repricing intensifies

Spot gold fell briefly below $4,000 last week before recovering to close at $4,072 per ounce — erasing all gains since late November 2025 and sitting 27% below January's peak of $5,596.

The most significant headwind is the hawkish repricing of global monetary policy. Markets entered 2026 pricing in two to three Fed rate cuts; they now price in nearly one full hike, while Australia has already delivered three increases this year. War-induced inflation forced central banks to pivot, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The debasement trade has also unwound: Warsh's data-dependent approach has restored confidence in Fed independence, and less volatile trade policy headlines have reversed the prior dollar weakness. Even the Geneva peace deal offered little reprieve for gold, as the inflation damage already embedded in the global rate cycle cannot be undone.

Retail investment enthusiasm has rotated — from Bitcoin in late 2025, to gold and silver in January 2026, to memory chip stocks more recently. Gold exchange traded fund (ETF) net inflows slowed to approximately 56 tonnes year-to-date through 19 June, per the World Gold Council. Central bank demand has weakened sharply: net cumulative purchases totalled just 17.57 tonnes as of April 2026, against 105.01 and 115.57 tonnes over the same period in 2025 and 2024 respectively, per IFS data compiled by LSEG.

Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold price target by $500 to $4,900 on 20 June, citing fading ETF inflows and the removal of all 2026 rate cuts from its base case.

Technically, gold has been trading within a descending channel since failing to surpass its historic peak in late January. The medium-term trend will remain bearish unless prices recover above the 200-day MA. Near-term support is at $3,886 — from October 2025's pivot low — while any recovery will encounter resistance from the 20-day MA at $4,212.

Figure 3: Spot gold daily price chart

Week ahead: Fed hike fears return as jobs data looms, China PMI stalls and central bankers convene in Sintra

Three themes dominate the week: US labour market data, Chinese manufacturing momentum, and central bankers gathering in Sintra for the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking.

Thursday's June non-farm payrolls (NFP) report — released a day early ahead of the Independence Day public holiday — is the centrepiece. May's print of 172,000 far exceeded the 85,000 consensus. After upward revisions to March and April, the three-month average reached 188,000 — the highest since March 2024. Last month, the strong data triggered a 4% sell-off on the Nasdaq, its worst single-day decline in over a year, as higher-for-longer fears weighed heavily on the AI trade. A repeat beat on Thursday could trigger a similar rotation; a miss, by contrast, may dampen hike expectations and lift rates-sensitive equities.

China's official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) purchasing managers' index (PMI) for June warrants attention beyond the headline. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing readings have hovered near 50, pointing to near-stagnant growth, and weak May investment and retail sales data suggest little improvement. Of particular concern is the widening gap between input and output prices — rising input costs are not fully being passed on, signalling potential margin erosion across Chinese businesses.

Central bankers gather in Sintra, Portugal from Monday, with Fed chair Kevin Warsh and ECB president Christine Lagarde among the key speakers. Having raised rates in June and projected inflation to peak at end-2026 and average 3.0% for the year, the ECB's tone at the Forum will be scrutinised for signals on further tightening. Wednesday's eurozone flash CPI print for June — against a prior reading of 3.2% — will then determine whether that hawkish pivot is warranted.

Figure 4: US non-farm payroll vs. unemployment rate

Key macro events this week: US job data, China PMI and ECB Forum on Central Banking

(All times in GMT+8)

Monday 29 June 2026

• 7.50am — Japan retail sales YoY (May): previous 2.1%, consensus 3.2%
• ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 (Day 1)

Tuesday 30 June 2026

• 7.30am — Japan unemployment rate (May): previous 2.5%, consensus 2.5%
• 9.30am — Australia RBA meeting minutes
• 9.30am — China NBS manufacturing PMI (June): previous 50, consensus 50.1
• 9.30am — China NBS non-manufacturing PMI (June): previous 50.1, consensus 49.9
• 10.00pm — US JOLTs job openings (May): previous 7.618 million, consensus 7.28 million
• ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 (Day 2)

Wednesday 1 July 2026

• 7.50am — Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (Q2): previous 17, consensus 16
• 9.45am — China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (June): previous 51.8, consensus 51.7
• 1.00pm — Japan consumer confidence (June): previous 33.6, consensus 34
• 5.00pm — Euro area inflation rate YoY flash (June): previous 3.2%, consensus 3%
• 8.15pm — US ADP employment change (June): previous 122,000, consensus 118,000
• 9.00pm — US Fed chair Warsh speech
• 10.00pm — US ISM manufacturing PMI (June): previous 54.0, consensus 53.7
• ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 (Day 3)

Thursday 2 July 2026

• 9.30am — Australia trade balance (May): previous A$1.791 billion, consensus A$2.2 billion
• 8.30pm — US non-farm payrolls (June): previous 172,000, consensus 114,000
• 8.30pm — US unemployment rate (June): previous 4.3%, consensus 4.3%

Friday 3 July 2026

• 9.45am — China RatingDog services PMI (June): previous 54.4, consensus 53.6

Key corporate earnings: can the turnaround story materialise for Nike?

(In local exchange time)

Wednesday 1 July 2026

• Nike

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 28 June 2026)}