Market Navigator: Gold hovers near $4,500 ahead of inflation data
25 May 2026

Last week's recap: China activity falters, global bond rout eases

• China activity data disappoints: Industrial production growth grew 4.1% year-on-year (YoY) in April — the softest since July 2023 and below consensus, as mining and manufacturing activities moderated. Year-to-date fixed asset investment fell back into negative territory at -1.6% YoY, reversing two months of gains. Retail sales barely grew at 0.2% YoY. Housing was the only bright spot, with the monthly decline in major cities new-home prices narrowing to 0.2% — the smallest contraction in a year.
• Australian labour market weakens: The unemployment rate jumped from 4.3% to 4.5% in April as employment fell by 18,600 — signalling that three consecutive rate hikes are weighing on economic activity. Markets sharply revised down the probability of further tightening in 2026 from near 100% to 65%, while AUD/USD slipped 0.3% on the week.
• Global bond rout stabilises: US 30-year yields retreated from 5.20% to 5.08%, while UK 30-year gilt yields fell sharply to 5.58% — the steepest weekly decline since December 2023 — after UK inflation slowed to 2.8% YoY in April, driven by the introduction of an energy price cap. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair.
• Japan underlying inflation undershoots: The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose 1.4% YoY in April, below the 1.7% consensus and the lowest reading since March 2022. With core inflation remaining beneath the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target and uncertainty around growth prospects from the Middle East conflict, the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting appears low.

Markets in focus: Dow Jones sets record high, gold steadies near $4,500

Dow Jones sets record high, NVIDIA slips post-earnings and SpaceX targets record IPO

US equities recovered from an early-week pullback driven by bond market volatility. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, and the Dow Jones outperformed with a 2.1% gain — reclaiming its record high for the first time since the Iran war began, as easing oil prices and ceasefire optimism helped the blue-chip index finally catch up with its tech-heavy peers.

NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% YoY, with Q2 guidance of $91 billion surpassing the consensus estimate of $86.8 billion. Chief executive Jensen Huang described the agentic and physical artificial intelligence (AI) era as the company's next major growth frontier. Despite the robust results, the share price declined 4.4% on the week as investors took profits following a strong run-up into earnings.

SpaceX filed its S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX on 12 June at a $1.75 trillion valuation, aiming to raise $75 billion in what would be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

Dell and HP Inc. both surged over 21% on the week, boosted by Lenovo's robust quarterly results — revenue up 27% YoY — which signalled a broad recovery in personal computer (PC) demand and enterprise AI hardware spending ahead of their own earnings this week.

The pullback in the US Tech 100 index early last week was contained, with the 20-day moving average (MA) providing support. The index resumes its path towards the 30,000 level. The medium-term bullish trend remains intact as long as the index holds above 26,200. Immediate support lies near 28,800, at the 20-day MA.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Gold steadies near $4,500: geopolitical uncertainty and demand headwinds persist

Gold staged a mid-week recovery after sliding to a low of $4,450 per ounce, clawing back above $4,500 as sentiment improved on progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and stabilising bond yields — 10-year US Treasury yields retreated to 4.57% after touching 4.69% the prior Tuesday. President Trump posted on Truth Social that the final details of a deal are under discussion and would be announced shortly. However, Iran's Fars news agency disputed that a memorandum of understanding had been reached, leaving the Strait of Hormuz reopening — and near-term gold price direction — contingent on further developments.

Structural headwinds persist. Monetary policy is materially tighter than markets had anticipated at the start of 2026, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Adding to demand-side pressure, India — the world's second-largest gold consumer — raised import duties sharply from 6% to 15% in May, the steepest increase on record. Indian gold demand in 2026 is expected to moderate, with jewellery and bar-and-coin demand estimated by the World Gold Council to decline by 50–60 tonnes, or approximately 10% YoY. Historically, higher duties tend to stimulate unofficial inflows, partially cushioning the impact on overall consumption.

From a technical standpoint, spot gold is at a crucial juncture, with prices lingering near the 200-day MA. A reclaim of this level is critical for the medium-term outlook to remain constructive. Failure to hold above it could trigger a further decline towards $4,400. Near-term upside is capped by recent local highs in the $4,700–$4,800 range.

Figure 2: Spot gold daily price chart

Week ahead: Australia CPI, US PCE and PDD earnings

Australia's monthly CPI for April is released on Wednesday, with markets expecting headline inflation to ease marginally from 4.6% to 4.4% YoY. Should the April print confirm at 4.4%, it would suggest that headline inflation may have peaked earlier than the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) own forecast of 4.8% in the June quarter. Of greater significance is the trimmed mean CPI — the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation — which is forecast to accelerate from 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month (MoM). With underlying inflation expected to remain above 3% YoY until mid-2027, a hotter-than-expected reading could reignite bets for a further rate hike at the June meeting, pushing the cash rate to 4.6%.

In the US, Thursday's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index will be closely watched after April's headline CPI rose to 3.8% YoY — its highest since May 2023 — and the producer price index (PPI) surged to 6.0% YoY, its fastest pace since December 2022. Consensus expects core PCE to hold at 0.3% MoM; an upside surprise would further reinforce Fed rate hike expectations. Durable goods orders are forecast to jump sharply to 3.5% MoM as businesses accelerate stockpiling ahead of potential war-related supply disruptions and elevated AI-driven demand.

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May, scheduled for Sunday, will indicate whether export momentum is sustaining manufacturing activity amid fragile domestic demand and a run of disappointing fixed investment and industrial production data.

On the corporate front, Xiaomi reports Tuesday with investors focused on electric vehicle traction. PDD will test whether profitability can hold amid fierce quick-commerce competition on Wednesday. Dell Technologies and HP Inc. are due to validate the nascent PC recovery, while Costco serves as a gauge of consumer resilience.

Figure 3: US inflation data

Key macro events this week: Australia and US inflation under scrutiny

(All times in GMT+8)

Wednesday 27 May 2026

• 9.30am — Australia inflation rate YoY (April): previous 4.6%, consensus 4.4%
• 9.30am — Australia trimmed mean CPI MoM (April): previous 0.3%, consensus 0.4%

Thursday 28 May 2026

• 8.30pm — US core PCE price index MoM (April): previous 0.3%, consensus 0.3%
• 8.30pm — US durable goods orders MoM (April): previous 0.8%, consensus 3.5%
• 8.30pm — US gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) second estimation (Q1): previous 0.5%, consensus 2.0%
• 8.30pm — US personal income MoM (April): previous 0.6%, consensus 0.4%
• 8.30pm — US personal spending MoM (April): previous 0.9%, consensus 0.5%

Friday 29 May 2026

• 7.50am — Japan retail sales YoY (April): previous 1.7%, consensus 1.3%
• 1.00pm — Japan consumer confidence (May): previous 32.2, consensus 32
• 8.00pm — Germany inflation rate YoY preliminary (May): previous 2.9%, consensus 2.8%

Sunday 31 May 2026

• 9.30am — China NBS manufacturing PMI (May): previous 50.3
• 9.30am — China NBS non-manufacturing PMI (May): previous 49.4

Key corporate earnings: China consumer names and US tech hardware

(In local exchange time)

Tuesday 26 May 2026

• Xiaomi

Wednesday 27 May 2026

• PDD
• Kuaishou
• Marvell Technology
• Salesforce

Thursday 28 May 2026

• Costco
• Dell Technologies
• HP Inc.

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 24 May 2026)}