Market navigator:
week of 27 April 2026

What happened last week

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• Peace talks hit an impasse: The US extended its ceasefire with Iran without a deadline, pending a unified Iranian proposal. Negotiations remain deadlocked as Tehran refuses to return to the table while the US naval blockade on Iranian ports stays in place. Escalating incidents in the near-closed Strait of Hormuz supported crude oil prices while stalling the equity rally.
• PMI data signals stagflation risk: April flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings beat estimates across the US (54.0 vs. 52.5), UK (53.6 vs. 49.9) and eurozone (52.2 vs. 50.8), as supply disruptions drove safety-stock building. Input costs were rapidly passed on — US and eurozone composite output prices hit their highest since July 2022 and March 2023 respectively, heightening stagflation concerns.
• BoJ hike pressure builds: Japan's April core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% year-on-year (YoY), the first acceleration in five months, though government energy subsidies flatter the headline. Excluding fresh food and energy, inflation held at 2.4% YoY — above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target for a 20th consecutive month — while a weak yen threatens to amplify price pressures, adding urgency to rate hike expectations.
• Warsh confirmation in limbo: Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair nominee reaffirmed Fed independence without committing to a rate path. He proposed eliminating forward guidance and revising inflation measurement, but his nomination remains stalled as Senator Tillis withholds support pending the Department of Justice dropping its probe into current chair Jerome Powell.

Markets in focus

CPU revival drives US stocks to records

Despite geopolitical headwinds weighing on global equities, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs led by technology stocks, advancing 0.5% and 2.4% respectively as investors pivoted to corporate earnings strength, while the Dow Jones declined 0.4%.

Intel's first-quarter results — revenue of US$13.6 billion against a US$12.4 billion consensus, with data centre and AI revenue surging 22% year-on-year — sparked a broad central processing unit (CPU) re-rating. Intel surged 20.5% while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 24.9%, as agentic AI workloads reinstated the once-overlooked chip category as a cornerstone of modern AI infrastructure. Tesla beat estimates on earnings and revenue, with a gross margin of 21.1% the standout. However, chief executive Elon Musk's pledge to raise 2026 capital expenditure to over US$25 billion tempered enthusiasm, leaving the stock down 6.1%.

Ahead of this week's Magnificent Seven earnings, Apple announced Tim Cook's departure as CEO in September, with hardware expert John Ternus named as successor. Meta confirmed a 10% workforce reduction to offset AI spending and signed a multi-billion-dollar agreement to use Amazon Web Services' Graviton5 chips for AI infrastructure. Microsoft offered voluntary redundancy to approximately 7% of US employees.

Technical momentum in the US Tech 100 continues to improve. Recent price action is consistent with Wave 5 of the Elliott Wave sequence, where a 161.8% Fibonacci extension could carry the index to 27,507. However, the 20% rebound from the 31 March low has driven the relative strength index (RSI) to 76, an overbought reading that suggests a near-term technical pullback may be imminent. Immediate support lies near 26,200, at the level of previous peaks.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

DeepSeek boost tempered by geopolitical drag

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) drifted within a narrow range for much of last week, weighed down by a lack of positive catalysts amid the same geopolitical uncertainties that clouded global sentiment. The index ultimately closed at -0.7%, as stalled US-Iran peace negotiations and persistent concerns over Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions kept risk appetite subdued. DeepSeek launched its V4 model on Friday, which is reported to deliver leading performance at a fraction of the cost of comparable Western closed-source models while running on domestic Chinese chips. The news lifted semiconductor names, with SMIC surging 8.3% to top the index. Lenovo advanced 6.2% on rising expectations for domestic computing hardware demand.

On the downside, New Oriental Education fell 10.0% after quarterly results revealed a 73.7% decline in net income alongside a disappointing full-year revenue guidance of 5%–10% growth. BYD dropped 9.2% after its first-quarter results missed both earnings and revenue estimates for a third consecutive quarter, as an unrelenting domestic price war continued to erode margins and market share. The White House's accusation of industrial-scale Chinese AI theft added broader geopolitical friction ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in May.

Technically, the HSI is navigating a false-breakout scenario after briefly clearing the 26,250 resistance to reach a high of 26,529. While the subsequent retreat signals a short-term absence of follow-through, the higher high indicates a structural shift in momentum. The index is currently testing a critical support cluster formed by the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) between 25,878 and 25,927. A sustained hold at this level keeps the 27,200 target in play. However, a break below these averages would confirm a range-bound environment (25,500–26,250) and raise the risk of a bearish death cross.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index daily price chart

Bitcoin's institutional moment

Bitcoin has staged an impressive recovery of close to 30% from the February low near US$60,000, supported by a confluence of institutional demand, improving regulatory sentiment, and a resumption of its correlation with technology equities.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have been the primary demand driver, with US-listed products recording nine consecutive days of net inflows according to Coinglass, putting April on track to end a four-month outflow streak. Morgan Stanley's bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) launch and Goldman Sachs's ETF filing signal deepening institutional commitment to the asset class. Meanwhile, crypto treasury firm Strategy spent US$7.0 billion to accumulate over 97,000 BTC since March.

On the supply side, exchange reserves have fallen to 2.672 million BTC — the lowest level since 2017, per CryptoQuant — while addresses holding 100 BTC or more accumulated 45,000 BTC in the week ending 18 April, the largest weekly accumulation since July 2025.

On the regulatory front, the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act remains an uncertain factor; the Senate Banking Committee has yet to confirm a markup date, with passage under the current congressional term no better than a coin toss.

The recent rally has carried bitcoin above a key resistance level near US$76,000, suggesting the worst of the correction is likely behind the market. A decisive break above the US$80,000 psychological level would open the way to the 200-day MA near US$85,500. Conversely, a rejection at this level could see bitcoin reverting to a trading range between US$74,000 and US$78,000. The resumed high correlation with technology equities is also worth monitoring — a deterioration in equity sentiment would pose a headwind to bitcoin's advance.

Figure 3: Bitcoin daily price chart

The week ahead

The coming week delivers a convergence of five major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of Canada (BoC) all convening. While markets overwhelmingly expect all five to hold rates, attention will centre on forward guidance and the timeline for the next policy change.

The market is currently most confident about the Fed's hold, pricing the probability at 99%. Most governors have signalled comfort with maintaining the current stance as they assess how elevated oil prices and Middle East conflict feed through to inflation. Recent data support this patience: business input prices are rising, and the latest jobless claims figures point to a resilient labour market, reducing the urgency for cuts.

The ECB presents the greatest uncertainty. Markets are pricing a 20% probability of an April hike after composite PMI data showed input prices jumping to their highest since late 2022. The eurozone inflation reading for April, due this week, will be critical in shaping that assessment. A hawkish ECB tone would reinforce expectations for two hikes this year, placing pressure on European equities while supporting the euro.

Australian and US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data will similarly inform the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Fed's respective policy outlooks.

Manufacturing PMI releases in China and the US may deliver a positive surprise as businesses accelerate inventory-building to cushion potential war-related supply disruptions.

On the corporate front, five members of the Magnificent Seven — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple — report alongside key Japanese technology names including Advantest, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Tokyo Electron and Hoya, offering a comprehensive read on AI ecosystem momentum. Visa and Mastercard results will illuminate consumer spending resilience, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron earnings are closely watched for margin implications from elevated oil prices, tempered by potential operational disruption to regional facilities.

Figure 4: Market probabilities on Fed fund rates

Key macro events this week

(All times in GMT+8)

Tuesday 28 April 2026

• 11.00am — Japan BoJ interest rate decision: previous 0.75%, consensus 0.75%

Wednesday 29 April 2026

• 9.30am — Australia inflation rate YoY (March): previous 3.7%, consensus 4.7%
• 8.30pm — US durable goods orders MoM (March): previous -1.4%, consensus 0.5%
• 9.45pm — Canada BoC interest rate decision: previous 2.25%, consensus 2.25%

Thursday 30 April 2026

• 2.00am — US Fed interest rate decision: previous 3.75%, consensus 3.75%
• 9.30am — China NBS manufacturing PMI (April): previous 50.4, consensus 50.2
• 9.30am — China NBS non-manufacturing PMI (April): previous 50.1, consensus 49.9
• 9.45am — China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (April): previous 50.8, consensus 50.5
• 1.00pm — Japan consumer confidence (April): previous 33.3, consensus —
• 5.00pm — Euro Area GDP growth rate QoQ flash (Q1): previous 0.2%, consensus 0.2%
• 5.00pm — Euro Area inflation rate YoY flash (April): previous 2.6%, consensus 2.9%
• 7.00pm — UK BoE interest rate decision: previous 3.75%, consensus 3.75%
• 8.15pm — Euro area ECB deposit interest rate decision: previous 2.0%, consensus 2.0%
• 8.30pm — US core PCE price index MoM (March): previous 0.4%, consensus 0.3%
• 8.30pm — US GDP growth rate QoQ advance estimate (Q1): previous 0.5%, consensus 2.1%
• 8.30pm — US personal income MoM (March): previous -0.1%, consensus 0.3%
• 8.30pm — US personal spending MoM (March): previous 0.4%, consensus 0.9%

Friday 1 May 2026

• 10.00pm — US ISM manufacturing PMI (April): previous 52.7, consensus 53.2

Key corporate earnings

(In local exchange time)

Monday 27 April 2026

• Hitachi
• Advantest

Tuesday 28 April 2026

• Shin-Etsu Chemical
• Mitsubishi Electric
• Visa
• Coca-Cola
• Novartis

Wednesday 29 April 2026

• UBS
• Alphabet
• Microsoft
• Amazon
• Meta
• AstraZeneca
• AbbVie

Thursday 30 April 2026

• Tokyo Electron
• Hoya
• Apple
• Eli Lilly
• Mastercard
• Caterpillar
• Merck

Friday 1 May 2026

• Exxon Mobil
• Chevron

Saturday 2 May 2026

• Berkshire Hathaway

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 26 April 2026)}