Market navigator:
week of 23 March 2026

What happened last week

• Fed holds amid stagflation fears: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held policy rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%. While acknowledging the oil crisis could drive up inflation, Chair Powell refused to size the impact. In a notable development for Fed independence, Powell does not intend to leave the board until a Department of Justice investigation into the central bank's headquarters renovation was fully resolved.
• Central bank hawks re-emerge: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, citing persistent inflation and Middle East upside risks. The Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates unchanged. The BoE warned of 3.5% inflation this year, the ECB projected 2.6% for 2026, and the BoJ flagged growth risks despite a hawkish dissent.
• China data surprises: China's January–February retail sales rose 2.8% year-on-year (YoY), beating consensus. Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% — its first gain since August — on 11.4% infrastructure growth. However, property investment fell 11.1% and new home prices dropped 3.2% YoY, the steepest decline in eight months.
• Energy infrastructure strikes escalate: Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, triggering retaliatory attacks that disabled 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity for up to five years. Brent crude peaked at $119 per barrel before easing to $112. On Thursday, aluminium posted its largest intraday drawdown since 2018, falling as much as 8% on global growth slowdown fears.

Markets in focus

Macro drags US indices below key technical levels

US equity markets declined for the fourth consecutive week as geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation data and fading artificial intelligence (AI) optimism converged. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, breaching its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since May 2025. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones declined 2.0% and 2.1% respectively. Investor anxiety remained elevated, with the Volatility Index (VIX) near 27 and the CNN Fear and Greed Index falling to 15.

The macro backdrop offered little comfort. US producer prices rose 0.7% month-on-month (MoM) in February — the steepest increase since July — adding to inflation concerns ahead of any full pass-through from conflict-related energy costs. Chair Powell acknowledged the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a difficult balancing act between slowing growth and persistent price pressures, and did not rule out a return to rate hikes.

Nvidia's chief executive Jensen Huang projected cumulative revenue from Blackwell and Vera Rubin architectures to exceed US$1 trillion through 2027 at its GTC developer conference. He also confirmed that H200 chip sales to China have secured the necessary permits, with purchase orders in place and manufacturing restarting. However, positive sentiment was overshadowed by the indictment of Super Micro Computer's co-founder for allegedly smuggling US$2.5 billion worth of Nvidia-powered servers to China. Super Micro shares plunged 33% over the week, while Nvidia fell approximately 4%.

From a technical standpoint, the US Tech 100 shows little sign of recovery and continues to trade below key MAs. The 24,000 level is critical — a sustained breach would confirm a descending triangle pattern, pointing to further selling pressure towards 23,000. Any rebound is likely to encounter resistance near 24,600.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Hang Seng Index reveals sharp sector divergence

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined 0.7% over the week, outperforming major Western indices as global risk aversion intensified. The modest loss masked significant dispersion at the sector level. Materials was the worst-performing sector, dragged lower by plunging metal prices, while Industrials outperformed, led by the clean energy segment.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturer, was the standout performer, with its share price rising 12% over the week. Multiple brokers revised target prices upwards following its strong full-year 2025 results. The Middle East oil shock provided an additional tailwind, with analysts noting that sustained higher fuel costs enhance the lifecycle cost advantage of EVs. BYD also outperformed as showroom traffic surged across Asia.

Partially offsetting these gains, index heavyweights Tencent and Alibaba each fell approximately 7%, erasing around US$66 billion in combined market capitalisation. Despite both companies reporting solid revenue growth, investors were disappointed by the absence of concrete AI monetisation timelines. Tencent's fourth-quarter revenue rose 13% YoY, but management offered no specific targets for converting its OpenClaw-based agentic AI products into revenue. Alibaba's cloud division grew 36%, but a 67% drop in quarterly net income underscored the cost of heavy infrastructure investment without near-term returns.

Examining the daily chart, bearish momentum continues to dominate the near-term picture. The HSI is testing support near 25,000 once again. A clean rebound from this level would begin to form a double-bottom pattern, though the index would still need to clear the neckline near 26,150 for breakout confirmation. Failure to hold above 25,000 may open a deeper pullback towards 23,200.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index daily price chart

Gold encounters worst week in four decades as safe-haven appeal fades

Spot gold declined sharply last week, falling 10.6% to close just below $4,500 on Friday, as a confluence of factors eroded its safe-haven appeal. The metal entered this correction from an elevated base, having delivered returns of 27% in 2024 and 65% in 2025. The strong rally over those two years attracted a significant speculative investor base, which has amplified volatility in recent months.

The immediate trigger was a surge in bond yields driven by hawkish signals from central banks globally. The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.39%, while the UK's 10-year gilt yield briefly touched 5% — the first time since 2008. With policymakers at the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ all cautioning against near-term easing given conflict-related inflation risks, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increased materially. A resilient US dollar amplified the sell-off across precious metals.

The structural demand picture is also showing signs of divergence. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) extended its gold purchasing streak to 16 consecutive months in February, adding 30,000 troy ounces. However, Poland's central bank — previously the world's largest reported buyer — has proposed selling a portion of its reserves to fund defence spending, introducing a possible shift in the demand landscape.

The daily chart reveals a sharp deterioration in momentum. The decisive breach below the uptrend established since August, combined with a potential death cross forming between the 20-day and 50-day MA, points to a challenging near-term outlook. The 200-day MA should provide support near $4,230. That said, a technical rebound from current levels remains possible, given that the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30, generating an oversold signal.

Figure 3: Spot gold daily price chart

The week ahead

Inflation data dominates this week's calendar, with releases in Japan, Australia and the UK offering a timely read on price dynamics with direct monetary policy implications.

Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) for February is closely watched after easing to 2.0% YoY in January — touching the BoJ's target for the first time since March 2022 — largely due to government energy subsidies weighing on utility costs and base effects from the prior year's food price surge. February's print is expected to extend the moderation trend, with Tokyo's February CPI data pointing in that direction. Should the national figure remain near or below 2%, it would afford the BoJ additional time to assess the economic impact of Middle East conflict before tightening further. It is also worth noting that the central bank's assessment will seek to isolate the effects of government relief measures and war-driven oil price surges from underlying economic momentum.

Australia's monthly CPI for February arrives against a more challenging backdrop. Headline inflation held at 3.8% YoY in January — well above the RBA's 2–3% target — driven by housing costs, education expenses, and the expiry of government electricity rebates. A further elevated February print would reinforce the case for additional RBA tightening after two consecutive rate hikes this year.

UK CPI for February and purchasing managers' index (PMI) flash estimates for the euro area and UK on Tuesday round out the macro picture. Resilience in PMI data would provide some relief on stagflation concerns across Europe.

On the corporate front, attention turns to Chinese technology and internet names, following the sell-off of Alibaba and Tencent shares after their results failed to provide concrete AI monetisation timelines. Xiaomi, PDD and Meituan will report into a market that has raised its bar for AI revenue visibility, with investors scrutinising whether heavy capital expenditure commitments are translating into measurable top-line contribution. Major Chinese banks also report, providing a read on net interest margin pressure and property sector stress.

Figure 4: Japan's core inflation rate is back in target range after almost four years

Key macro events this week

(In GMT+8 time zone)

Tuesday 24 March 2026

• 7.30am — Japan core inflation rate YoY (February): previous 2.0%, consensus 1.7%
• 5.30pm — Euro area HCOB manufacturing PMI flash (March): previous 50.8, consensus 49.5
• 5.30pm — Euro area HCOB services PMI flash (March): previous 51.9, consensus 51.0
• 5.30pm — UK S&P global manufacturing PMI flash (March): previous 51.7, consensus 51.1
• 5.30pm — UK S&P global services PMI flash (March): previous 53.9, consensus 53.0

Wednesday 25 March 2026

• 7.50am — Japan BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes
• 8.30am — Australia inflation rate YoY (February): previous 3.8%, consensus 3.8%
• 3.00pm — UK inflation rate YoY (February): previous 3%, consensus 3%

Friday 27 March 2026

• 3.00pm — UK retail sales MoM (February): previous 1.8%, consensus -0.4%

Key corporate earnings

(in local exchange time)

Monday 23 March 2026

• WuXi AppTec

Tuesday 24 March 2026

• Xiaomi
• WuXi Biologics

Wednesday 25 March 2026

• PDD
• Kuaishou
• Popmart

Thursday 26 March 2026

• Meituan
• CNOOC
• China Mobile
• Ping An

Friday 27 March 2026

• BYD
• China Construction Bank
• PetroChina
• Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
• China Merchants Bank

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 21 March 2026)}