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week of 23 February 2026
US tariff relief and strong Q4 earnings boosted equities, while geopolitical tensions drove crude oil to a six-month high and gold above $5,000. Nvidia earnings this week.
Summary
What happened last week
- Tariff ruling boosts sentiment: The US Supreme Court ruled tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) unlawful, boosting technology and consumer sectors. Trump nonetheless plans to impose a 15% global tariff through an alternative avenue. Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) growth disappointed at 1.4% due to government shutdown. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew 0.4% month-on-month (MoM), firmer than expected.
- US-Iran tensions rattle oil markets: Brent crude oil surged above $72 per barrel and WTI crude oil topped $66, as the US stepped up military presence in the Gulf while Iran conducted naval drills with Russia. Geneva talks yielded limited progress, keeping markets on edge over the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply transits.
- Inflation relief in Japan: Japan's Q4 GDP expanded at an annualised 0.2%, below expectations, as inflation weighed on consumer spending. Headline inflation eased sharply to 1.5% in January -- its first dip below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target in 44 months — reinforcing a cautious stance on rate hikes. USD/JPY strengthened above 155.
- Australia labour market holds firm: Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in January, with employment growth moderating. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes struck a hawkish tone on inflation. The central bank is expected to observe for at least a month or two, following February's rate hike, before its next move.
Markets in focus
US earnings season is about to wrap up
On Friday, the Supreme Court's IEEPA tariff ruling provided a measure of relief to US equity markets clouded by concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) growth sustainability. Large-capitalisation technology stocks rebounded sharply, driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each up 1.1% last week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%.
Q4 US earnings season is approaching its final stretch. With more than three-quarters of S&P 500 constituents having reported, blended earnings growth stands at over 14% according to Bloomberg -- the highest growth rate in four years and materially exceeding the 8.3% estimate projected at end of last year. Although information technology and communication services continue to lead earnings growth, both sectors have underperformed the broader market year-to-date, as investor expectations tied to the AI cycle remain exceptionally elevated.
Walmart's earnings release last week introduced a cautionary note on consumption trends that may have been overlooked by the market. The retailer issued a subdued guidance, citing a slowdown in hiring, weaker consumer sentiment, and rising student loan delinquency rates. Sales growth is increasingly concentrated among wealthier households, while lower-income consumers face mounting spending constraints. Its shares fell approximately 3% in response.
From a technical perspective, the US Tech 100 exhibited limited momentum improvement, with the index continuing to consolidate around the 200-day moving average (MA) near 24,600. A sustained breach below this level would signal a reversal of the medium-term uptrend. The 50-day MA provides overhead resistance near 25,300. Until the index reclaims that level, the prospect of new historical highs appears unlikely in the near term.
Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart
Crude oil rises to six-month high amid geopolitical tensions
WTI crude oil surged past $66 per barrel this week, driven by a confluence of geopolitical and supply-side dynamics. Escalating US-Iran tensions remain the primary catalyst, with markets pricing in the risk of disruption to Iran's 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of production, alongside the consequential though low-probability scenario of the Strait of Hormuz closing. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Geneva concluded without a breakthrough, keeping existing sanctions on Russian crude in place and removing a potential avenue of supply relief.
On the inventory side, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed an unexpected draw of 9 million barrels, against market expectations of a 1.65-million-barrel build. Earlier this month, OPEC+ resolved to hold production steady through the first quarter (Q1), providing a degree of support to prices, as the group could have opted to resume output increases.
That said, oil prices face meaningful downside risks from a persistent global supply surplus, currently estimated at 3.7 million barrels per day by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Venezuelan crude exports are also recovering, though a full ramp-up to material volumes will take time.
With global oil production rising from 105.6 million bpd in June 2025 to 106.6 million bpd in January 2026, WTI crude is unlikely to exceed the June peak of approximately $78 per barrel during the previous US strikes in Iran. Technically, the bearish trend established since late June has been reversed as prices crossed above the 200-day MA. The relative strength index (RSI) rising above 50 further confirms improving momentum. WTI faces resistance near $66.3 — a sustained close above this level would set the next target near $70, while a rejection could see prices pull back to near-term support at $64.
Figure 2: US crude oil daily price chart
Gold recovers above $5,000
Gold rose 1.2%, regaining the $5,000 per ounce level, as safe-haven demand intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The volatile price action during the week of 26 January — which saw gold surge to $5,596 before retreating intraweek to $4,401 — triggered deleveraging activity across the market. However, liquidation pressures appear to have eased, with exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows returning to positive territory. Nevertheless, the magnitude of inflows during the week ending 13 February (14.8 tonnes) remained well below the average weekly inflow recorded in January (27.1 tonnes), reflecting a more cautious disposition among investors.
Central bank demand continues to provide structural support. China added 40,000 troy ounces to its reserves in January, extending its consecutive buying streak to 15 months, while Poland raised its gold reserve ceiling from 550 tonnes to 700 tonnes.
The daily price chart indicates that the broader uptrend remains intact, with gold trading well above the 200-day MA. The pullback from 29 January to 1 February aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the advance between $3,886 and $5,596. With prices holding above the uptrend line, the correction appears to have run its course. A break above the minor resistance near $5,100 would open the path to a retest of the $5,596 peak, while the 50-day MA near $4,770 should provide solid downside support.
Figure 3: Spot gold daily price chart
The week ahead
The macro calendar is relatively light this week, with Australia's inflation data and US wholesale price pressures in focus. As the US reporting season draws to a close, Hong Kong's earnings season gets under way.
Australia's monthly consumer price index (CPI) for January, due Wednesday, will be closely monitored ahead of the RBA's next policy meeting. The central bank's preferred inflation gauge — trimmed mean CPI — stood at 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) in December, above the 2-3% target band. A stabilisation or deceleration would afford the RBA additional time to assess the impact of February's rate hike before determining its next move, while an upside surprise would likely provide support to the Australian dollar.
In the US, January's Producer Price Index (PPI), due Friday, will be assessed against the encouraging trend seen in consumer prices. Core CPI retreated to 2.5% YoY in January — its lowest level since March 2021. January's PPI will indicate whether upstream cost pressures have eased in tandem. A firm reading would suggest businesses are absorbing higher costs through margin compression, keeping the risk of consumer price re-acceleration alive.
On the corporate front, Nvidia is the most anticipated earnings event of the season. Having delivered 62% revenue growth last quarter, investors will scrutinise whether AI infrastructure demand remains robust amid intensifying competition and concerns over circular deal structures. The outlook for chip exports to China will also be closely watched. Guidance falling short of already elevated expectations could exert downward pressure on technology valuations globally.
Berkshire Hathaway's full-year results on Saturday carry additional significance, as they will include Greg Abel's first annual letter to shareholders following his succession of Warren Buffett. Markets will focus on the conglomerate's capital allocation strategy and its substantial cash position.
In Hong Kong, HSBC kicks off the local earnings season on Wednesday, with investors focused on wealth management revenue and net interest margin (NIM) trends. Baidu reports on Thursday.
Figure 4: RBA forced to resume rate hikes on elevated prices in Australia
Key macro events this week
(In GMT+8 time zone)
Tuesday 24 February 2026
- 11.00pm — US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (February): previous 84.5, consensus 86
Wednesday 25 February 2026
- 8.30am — Australia CPI YoY (January): previous 3.8%, consensus 3.7%
- 8.30am — Australia Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (January): previous 3.3%
Friday 27 February 2026
- 7.50am — Japan Retail Sales YoY (January): previous -0.9%, consensus -0.4%
- 9.30pm — US PPI MoM (January): previous 0.5%, consensus 0.3%
Key corporate earnings
(in local exchange time)
Tuesday 24 February 2026
Wednesday 25 February 2026
Thursday 26 February 2026
Saturday 28 February 2026
Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 21 February 2026)
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