Week ahead: US jobs report; FOMC minutes; German retail sales; China manufacturing; Constellation Brands
The year 2024 begins with a bang. Keep an eye out for the closely watched US employment report along with FOMC minutes. Manufacturing and retail sales data from Germany and China could provide some FX volatility.
(Partial Video Transcript)
New Year starts with a bang
Hello, welcome to IGTV and your special look ahead to the first week of 2024. And if you think you could have that great big party and drink all you want and have that hangover, well, you might want to drink a little less because you won't have long for that hangover.
Next week is going to be quite busy. We've got non-farm payrolls, also FOMC minutes to boot as well. And early on in the week, we've got the Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) out of China.
And then later on in the week, it gets rather busy with unemployment numbers out of Germany. That FOMC minutes will be key, given the US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot that we've seen recently, along with the job openings, this is the JOLTS report, and manufacturing PMIs out of the US as well.
CPIs due from Germany, France
And then a little later on in the week, on Thursday, watch out for Caixin. These are the services part of the PMIs. Consumer price index (CPI) details out of Germany and France will be good for those investors looking out for any kind of retail indicators as well, and consumption strength out of those two economies.
And the ADP employment change, along with the initial jobless claims out of the US, ahead of that key figure that we're all waiting out for this coming Friday, which is the non-farm payrolls.
Now, Friday is a big one because the market has been looking out for any indications of a firm date for this expected rate cut.
Can we expect a rate cut in March?
Currently, I can tell you that the expectation is for the first rate cut to come in March. But if we see a very soft figure, a softer than expected figure for the non-farm payrolls, then maybe this month or this date could shift.
We've also got German retail sales figures and also the euro zone consumer price index, not forgetting the Halifax house price data out of the UK. And it has been a turbulent year for property prices in Britain.
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