Super Micro earnings preview: credibility on trial

​​​Blackwell ramp-up should support sales

​Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) reports second quarter (Q2) earnings on 3 February 2026, with analysts expecting revenue of $10.432 billion, roughly flat year-on-year (YoY). The company should benefit from NVIDIA's Blackwell graphics processing unit (GPU) ramp-up, with easing AI supply-chain bottlenecks supporting sales at or above the $10.5bn guidance midpoint.

​The AI infrastructure build-out is shifting towards bigger, more integrated cluster orders. These larger deals should improve execution and revenue visibility compared to recent quarters, where smaller orders created more operational complexity.

​Earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $0.485 on an adjusted basis, down from prior quarters. Operating profit is expected at $416.375m, with EBITDA of $442.727m, both showing minimal growth from the previous year.

​The company has missed earnings estimates in six of the past eight quarters. This track record has damaged confidence, making the upcoming results critical for rebuilding credibility with investors.

​Full-year outlook under scrutiny

​Management's $36bn full-year revenue view looks achievable based on current order trends. However, investors will want clarity on whether this includes contributions from Vera Rubin servers, the company's next-generation AI platform.

​The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 12.77, well below the trailing ratio of 22.39. This compression reflects market scepticism about whether the company can deliver on its growth projections after recent disappointments.

​Analysts maintain a long-term growth estimate of 28.01% for EPS. This implies significant operating leverage if the company can execute consistently, but that's a big if given recent performance.

​The current share price of $29.11 sits well below the average analyst target of $47.15. This 62% upside reflects both the bull case for AI infrastructure demand and the discount applied for execution risk.

​Margins near a trough

Q2 operating margin is expected to mark the low point for the year. Supply inefficiencies continue to linger even as execution improves, putting pressure on profitability in the near term.

​Deal size and intense competition are likely to cap operating margins in a 5 - 7% range over the next several quarters. This represents a structural challenge for the company, as larger customers extract better pricing and competitors fight for market share.

​The company has beaten EBITDA estimates in three of the past six quarters, suggesting some ability to manage costs. However, the overall miss rate on earnings and revenue undermines confidence that margins can improve meaningfully from current levels.

​Net income is forecast at $330m for the quarter, down slightly from the previous year. This decline, despite flat revenue, highlights the margin compression the company faces as it scales operations.

​Competitive pressure remains intense

​The AI infrastructure market is becoming increasingly competitive. Hyperscalers are developing in-house solutions, while established server vendors are ramping up their own offerings, putting pressure on Super Micro's market position.

​The shift to larger cluster deals helps with execution but also concentrates risk. If one or two major customers delay orders or switch suppliers, it can create significant revenue volatility quarter to quarter.

​Bloomberg Intelligence notes that bottlenecks in the AI value chain have diminished, which should support better sales execution. However, this also means competitors face fewer constraints, intensifying the battle for market share.

​The company's ability to differentiate on integrated solutions and liquid cooling technology provides some competitive advantage. Whether this translates into sustained margin improvement or simply allows the company to hold market share remains to be seen.

​Narrative matters more than the print

​After repeated earnings misses and a share price that has fallen dramatically from its 2024 peaks, confidence in delivery and guidance credibility will be as important as headline numbers. Investors need to see consistent execution, not just one quarter beats.

​The analyst community is split, with 10 buy ratings, 10 holds and 3 sells. This division reflects the tension between the company's positioning in a high-growth market and its track record of disappointing results.

​The options market implies a 6.03% move on earnings day, suggesting traders are pricing in significant volatility. This one-day move expectation is below the 10.4% average implied move, perhaps reflecting some capitulation after the sharp decline.

​Management commentary on supply chain improvements, order backlog and visibility into second-half demand will matter more than Q2 results. Investors want evidence that the worst is behind the company and that it can execute consistently going forward.

​SuperMicro stock price – technical analysis

​SMCI’s shares have struggled for more than a year. They remain close to the 2025 lows around $27, with little sign of a recovery yet developing. If this support level is lost, then the 2024 low at $17.60 comes into view.

​Recent strength petered out below $34, so a close above here is needed to suggest more substantial upside is possible.

​SMCI weekly candlestick chart