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S&P 500 under pressure while EUR/GBP digs into key resistance and silver price rises
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 as its struggles while EUR/GBP tries to break through key resistance and the silver price rises.
Macro update
Wall Street slips as private equity weighs:
The S&P 500 declined 0.28%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.31% and the Dow Jones dropped 0.54%, pressured by losses in private equity firms after Blue Owl sold $1.4bn of assets and suspended redemptions in one fund, fuelling concerns over credit quality and leverage.
Tech mixed amid lingering AI doubts:
NVIDIA eased ahead of next week’s earnings, while Apple fell 1.4%, exerting the largest drag on the S&P 500 as investors questioned whether heavy artificial intelligence (AI) investment will deliver sustainable profit growth.
Earnings reactions diverge:
Deere surged 11.6% after raising its full-year profit outlook, while EPAM slumped 17% on cautious guidance and Carvana dropped nearly 8% after missing estimates; Omnicom climbed 15% on a revenue beat.
Oil hits six-month high on US-Iran tensions:
Brent crude oil rose toward $72 a barrel, on track for its first weekly gain in three, after President Trump gave Iran 10 - 15 days to reach a nuclear deal, heightening concerns about disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global supply.
Dollar heads for strongest week since October:
The US dollar index hovered near a one-month high and was up more than 1% for the week, supported by firmer US data, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks.
Attention shifts to inflation data:
Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, signalling labour market resilience, as investors look ahead to the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for further clarity on rate cuts, with markets pricing roughly a 50 - 60% chance of a Fed move by June.
S&P 500 remains under pressure
The S&P 500 remains under pressure while it stays below Thursday's 6909 high with a fall through Thursday's 6833 low engaging the mid-December-to-20 January lows at 6789 - 6760. Failure there would have more bearish implications with the mid-December low at 6720 being eyed.
Were a rise above Thursday's high at 6909 to be seen, though, the October peak at 6920 would likely be next in line.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below Thursday's 6909 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the 6721 mid-December low but below the 7002 January peak.
S&P 500 daily candlestick chart
EUR/GBP probes resistance zone
EUR/GBP trades in six week highs, testing resistance going back to late December. A rise and daily chart close above Thursday's £0.8751 high may lead to a push towards the £0.8800 region unfolding.
Minor support below the 11 February high at £0.8724 may be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8703.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above £0.8677, the 17 February low.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish slant while below £0.8751 late December high but above the early February low at £0.8613; a daily chart close above £0.8751 would turn the forecast to a bullish one, though, targeting the £0.8850 region.
EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart
Silver regains losses
The silver price is seen bouncing back from Tuesday's $71.9774 low and tries to rise above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $79.5561 and reach the late December-to-early January highs at $82.7706 - $84.0301.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 17 February $86.3218 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the 6 February low at $64.0626 but below the 4 February high at $92.2049.
Silver daily candlestick chart
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